Wk 18 Playoff Scenarios 2021

By Michael Gertz
Friday, January 8, 2022

The following are all possible playoff tiebreakers and seeding scenarios for the final week of the season. For full standings, records in tiebreaking categories, and tiebreaker process, visit the Standings page.

AFC

Current Standings

1. Tennessee Titans (11-5) -- @HOU
2. Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) -- @DEN
3. Cincinnati Bengals (10-6) -- @CLE
4. Buffalo Bills (10-6) -- vNYJ
5. New England Patriots (10-6) -- @MIA
6. Indianapolis Colts (9-7) -- @JAC
7. Los Angeles Chargers (9-7) -- @LV
8. Las Vegas Raiders (9-7) -- vLAC
9. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7-1) -- @BAL
10*. Miami Dolphins (8-8) -- vNE
11. Baltimore Ravens (8-8) -- vPIT

*MIA are eliminated due to tiebreakers but their presence in tiebreakers can affect other teams

Determining Division Winners

Possible Tiebreakers:
-BUF > NE on division record

Scenarios:
-BUF wins AFC East with win vNYJ OR NE loss @MIA
-NE wins AFC East with win @MIA + BUF loss vNYJ
-CIN has won AFC North
-TEN has won AFC South
-KC has won AFC West

Division Winners Seeding

Possible tiebreakers:
-TEN > KC on head to head
-CIN > TEN on conference record
-TEN > BUF on head to head
-NE > TEN on head to head
-CIN > KC on head to head
-BUF > KC on head to head
-NE > KC on conference record
-CIN > BUF on conference record
-NE > CIN on common games

-CIN > TEN > KC with CIN & TEN > KC on head to head
-CIN > TEN > BUF with CIN > TEN & BUF on conference record
-NE > CIN > TEN with NE & CIN > TEN on conference record
-TEN > BUF > KC on head to head
-NE > TEN > KC with NE > TEN & KC on conference record
-CIN > BUF > KC with CIN & BUF > KC on head to head
-NE > CIN > KC with CIN & NE > KC on conference record

-CIN > TEN > BUF > KC with CIN > TEN & BUF & KC on conference record
-NE > CIN > TEN > KC with CIN & NE > TEN & KC on conference record

Scenarios:
TEN:
-#1 seed with win OR (KC loss + CIN loss + (NE loss OR BUf win))
-#2 seed with loss + (KC & CIN go 1-1 + (BUF win OR NE loss) OR KC loss + CIN loss + BUF loss + NE win)
-#3 seed with loss + (KC win + CIN win + (BUF win OR NE loss) OR KC & CIN go 1-1 + BUF loss + NE win)
-#4 seed with loss + KC win + CIN win + BUF loss + NE win
KC:
-#1 seed with win + TEN loss
-#2 seed with win + TEN win OR loss + CIN loss + BUF loss + NE loss
-#3 seed with loss + CIN & East winner going 1-1
-#4 seed with loss + CIN win + (BUF win OR NE win)
CIN:
-#1 seed with win + TEN loss + KC loss + (BUF win OR NE loss)
-#2 seed with win + (TEN & KC go 1-1 + (BUF win OR NE loss) OR TEN loss + KC loss + BUF loss + NE win)
-#3 seed with win + (TEN win + KC win + (BUF win OR NE loss) OR NE win + BUF loss + TEN & KC go 1-1) OR loss + BUF loss + NE loss
-#4 seed with loss + (BUF win OR NE win) OR win + TEN win + KC win + BUF loss + NE win
BUF:
-#2 seed with win + KC loss + CIN loss
-#3 seed with win + KC & CIN go 1-1
-#4 seed with win + KC win + CIN win OR loss + NE loss
NE:
-#1 seed with win + BUF loss + TEN loss + KC loss
-#2 seed with win + BUF loss + TEN & KC go 1-1
-#3 seed with win + BUF loss + TEN win + KC win

Wild Cards

Possible tiebreakers:
-IND > BUF on head to head
-LAC > BUF on conference record
-LV > BUF on conference record
-IND > NE on head to head
-NE > LAC on head to head
-LV > NE on common games
-IND > LAC on conference record
-LV > IND on head to head
-LAC > LV on head to head

-IND > LAC > BUF with IND > LAC & BUF on conference record
-LV > IND > BUF with LV & IND > BUF on conference record
-IND > NE > LAC with IND & NE > LAC on conference record
-LV > IND > NE with LV > IND & NE on strength of victory
-BAL > IND & LAC on head to head
-LV > IND & BAL on head to head

-IND > LAC & MIA & BAL on conference record
-LV > IND & MIA & BAL on head to head

Scenarios:
BUF:
-#6 seed with loss + NE win + IND loss
-#7 seed with loss + NE win + IND win
NE:
-#5 seed with win + BUF win OR loss + IND loss + LV loss
-#6 seed with loss + IND & LV go 1-1
-#7 seed with loss + IND win + LV win
IND:
-#5 seed with win + (BUF loss OR NE loss) + LV loss
-#6 seed with win + (BUF win + NE win + LV loss OR (BUF loss OR NE loss) + LV win)
-#7 seed with win + BUF win + NE win + LV win OR loss + LAC loss + PIT loss + MIA win
-Eliminated with loss + (LAC win OR PIT win OR MIA loss)
LAC:
-#5 seed with win + BUF loss + NE win + IND loss
-#6 seed with win + ((BUF win OR NE loss) + IND loss OR BUF loss + NE win + IND win)
-#7 seed with win (BUF win OR NE loss) + IND win
-Eliminated with loss
LV:
-#5 seed with win + (BUF loss OR NE loss)
-#6 seed with win + BUF win + NE win
-#7 seed with loss + IND loss + PIT loss
-Eliminated with loss + (IND win OR PIT win)
PIT:
-#7 seed with win + IND loss
-Eliminated with loss OR IND win
BAL:
-#7 seed with win + IND loss + LAC loss + MIA loss
-Eliminated with loss OR IND win OR LAC win OR MIA win

Potential for Resting Starters

-CIN would get a #3 or #4 seed if KC wins Sat & TEN wins, so CIN could rest starters if KC wins & TEN gets a big lead
-NE would get a #5-#7 seed if BUF wins, so NE could rest starters if BUF gets a big lead
-LV could be locked into a #5-#7 or #6-#7 seed by the time they play with IND loss + PIT loss, and could rest starters

NFC

Current Standings

1. Green Bay Packers (13-3) -- @DET
2. Los Angeles Rams (12-4) -- vSF
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12-4) -- vCAR
4. Dallas Cowboys (11-5) -- @PHI
5. Arizona Cardinals (11-5) -- vSEA
6. San Francisco 49ers (9-7) -- @LAR
7. Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) -- vDAL
8. New Orleans Saints (8-8) -- @ATL

Determining Division Winners

Possible Tiebreakers:
-ARI > LAR on division record

Scenarios:
-DAL has won NFC East
-GB has won NFC North
-TB has won NFC South
-LAR wins NFC West with win vSF OR ARI loss vSEA
-ARI wins NFC West with win vSEA + LAR loss vSF

Division Winners Seeding

Possible tiebreakers:
-GB > LAR on head to head
-GB > TB on conference record
-LAR > TB on head to head
-DAL > LAR on conference record
-TB > DAL on head to head
-ARI > TB on conference record
-ARI > DAL on head to head

-GB > LAR > TB with GB & LAR > TB on conference record
-DAL > LAR > TB with DAL > LAR & TB on conference record
-ARI > TB > DAL with ARI & TB > DAL on head to head

Scenarios:
GB:
-#1 seed
LAR:
-#2 seed with win OR TB loss + DAL loss + ARI loss
-#3 seed with loss + ARI loss + TB & DAL go 1-1
-#4 seed with loss + ARI loss + TB win + DAL win
TB:
-#2 seed with win + LAR loss
-#3 seed with win + LAR win OR loss + (LAR win OR ARI win OR DAL loss)
-#4 seed with loss + LAR loss + ARI loss + DAL win
DAL:
-#2 seed with win + LAR loss + ARI loss + TB loss
-#3 seed with win + LAR loss + ARI loss + TB win
-#4 seed with loss OR LAR win OR ARI win
ARI:
-#2 seed with win + LAR loss + TB loss
-#3 seed with win + LAR loss + TB win

Wild Cards

Possible tiebreakers:
-SF > PHI on head to head
-NO > SF on conference record
-PHI > NO on head to head

-PHI > NO > SF with PHI & NO > SF on conference record

Scenarios:
LAR:
-#5 seed with loss + ARI win
ARI:
-#5 seed with loss OR LAR win
SF:
-#6 seed with win OR (PHI loss + NO loss)
-#7 seed with loss + PHI win + NO loss
-Eliminated with loss + NO win
PHI:
-#6 seed with win + SF loss OR loss + SF loss + NO win
-#7 seed with SF win OR loss + SF loss + NO loss
NO:
-#7 seed with win + SF loss
-Eliminated with loss OR SF win

Potential for Resting Starters

-GB is #1 seed and could rest starters
-TB would be locked into the #3 seed with a LAR win, and could rest starters if LAR gets a big lead
-DAL can only improve seed with LAR loss + ARI loss + TB loss, and could rest starters
-ARI would be locked into the #5 seed with a LAR win, and could rest starters if LAR gets a big lead
-PHI will be either #6 or #7 seed, and could rest starters