Wk 17 Playoff Scenarios 2020

By Michael Gertz
Friday, January 1, 2021

The following are all possible playoff tiebreakers and most seeding scenarios for the final week of the season. For full standings, records in tiebreaking categories, and tiebreaker process, visit the Standings page.

AFC

Current Standings

1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) -- vLAC
2. Buffalo Bills (12-3) -- vMIA
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-3) -- @CLE
4. Tennessee Titans (10-5) -- @HOU
5. Miami Dolphins (10-5) -- @BUF
6. Baltimore Ravens (10-5) -- @CIN
7. Cleveland Browns (10-5) -- vPIT
8. Indianapolis Colts (10-5) -- vJAC

Determining Division Winners

Possible Tiebreakers:
-TEN > IND on division record

Scenarios:
-BUF has won AFC East
-PIT has won AFC North
-TEN wins AFC South with win @HOU OR IND loss vJAC
-IND wins AFC South with win vJAC + TEN loss @HOU
-KC has won AFC West

Division Winners Seeding

Possible tiebreakers:
-BUF > PIT on head to head

Scenarios:
KC:
-#1 seed
BUF:
-#2 seed with win OR PIT loss
-#3 seed with loss + PIT win
PIT:
-#2 seed with win + BUF loss
-#3 seed with loss OR BUF win
TEN:
-#4 seed with win OR IND loss
IND:
-#4 seed with win + TEN loss

Wild Cards

Possible tiebreakers:
-TEN > MIA on common games
-TEN > BAL on head to head
-CLE > TEN on head to head
-MIA > BAL on conference record
-MIA > CLE on conference record
-MIA > IND on conference record
-BAL > CLE on head to head sweep
-BAL > IND on head to head
-CLE > IND on head to head

-TEN > MIA > BAL with TEN & MIA > BAL on conference record, then TEN > MIA on common games
-TEN > MIA > CLE with TEN & MIA > CLE on conference record, then TEN > MIA on common games
-TEN > BAL > CLE with BAL > CLE on head to head, then TEN > BAL on head to head
-MIA > BAL > CLE with BAL > CLE on head to head, then MIA > BAL on conference record
-MIA > BAL > IND with MIA > BAL & IND on conference record, then BAL > IND on head to head
-MIA > CLE > IND with MIA > CLE & IND on conference record, then CLE > IND on head to head
-BAL > CLE > IND with BAL > CLE on head to head, then BAL > IND on head to head, then CLE > IND on head to head

-TEN > MIA > BAL > CLE with BAL > CLE on head to head, then TEN & MIA > BAL on conference record, then TEN > MIA on common games
-MIA > BAL > CLE > IND with BAL > CLE on head to head, then MIA > BAL & IND on conference record, then BAL > IND on head to head, then CLE > IND on head to head

Scenarios:
TEN:
-#5 seed with loss + IND win + MIA loss + BAL loss + CLE loss
-#6 seed with loss + IND win + MIA/BAL/CLE go 1-2
-#7 seed with loss + IND win + CLE win + MIA/BAL go 1-1
-Eliminated with loss + IND win + MIA win + BAL win
MIA:
-#5 seed with win OR loss + IND loss + BAL loss + CLE loss
-#6 seed with loss + IND/BAL/CLE go 1-2
-#7 seed with loss + IND/BAL/CLE go 2-1
-Eliminated with loss + IND win + BAL win + CLE win
BAL:
-#5 seed with win + MIA loss
-#6 seed with win + MIA win OR loss + CLE loss + IND loss
-#7 seed with loss + CLE/IND go 1-1
-Eliminated with loss + CLE win + IND win
CLE:
-#5 seed with win + MIA loss + BAL loss
-#6 seed with win + MIA/BAL go 1-1
-#7 seed with win + MIA win + BAL win OR loss + (IND loss OR TEN loss + MIA win + BAL win)
-Eliminated with loss + IND win + (TEN win OR MIA loss OR BAL loss)
IND:
-#5 seed with win + TEN win + MIA loss + BAL loss + CLE loss
-#6 seed with win + TEN win + MIA/BAL/CLE go 1-2
-#7 seed with win + TEN win + MIA/BAL/CLE go 2-1
-Eliminated with loss OR TEN win + MIA win + BAL win + CLE win

Potential for Resting Starters

-KC has clinched the #1 seed and could rest starters
-BUF has clinched the #2 or #3 seed and could rest starters
-PIT has clinched the #2 or #3 seed and could rest starters

Progression on Sunday

-TEN could clinch a playoff spot prior to their game with a MIA loss OR BAL loss
-If MIA/BAL/CLE all win, IND could only make playoffs as division winner with win + TEN loss

NFC

Current Standings

1. Green Bay Packers (12-3) -- @CHI
2. New Orleans Saints (11-4) -- @CAR
3. Seattle Seahawks (11-4) -- @SF
4*. Washington Footballs (6-9) -- @PHI
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-5) -- vATL
6. Los Angeles Rams (9-6) -- vARI
7. Chicago Bears (8-7) -- vGB
8. Arizona Cardinals (8-7) -- @LAR
9*. Dallas Cowboys (6-9) -- @NYG
10*. New York Giants (5-10) -- vDAL

*WAS, DAL, & NYG can only make playoffs as Division Winner

Determining Division Winners

Possible Tiebreakers:
-WAS > DAL on head to head sweep
-NO > TB on head to head sweep

-NYG > WAS & DAL on division record

Scenarios:
-WAS wins NFC East with win
-DAL wins NFC East with win + WAS loss @PHI
-NYG wins NFC East with win + WAS loss @PHI
-GB has won NFC North
-NO has won NFC South
-SEA has won NFC West

Division Winners Seeding

Possible tiebreakers:
-GB > NO on head to head
-SEA > GB on common games
-NO > SEA on conference record

-NO > SEA > GB with NO > SEA & GB on conference record, then SEA > GB on common games

Scenarios:
GB:
-#1 seed with win OR SEA loss
-#2 seed with loss + SEA win + NO loss
-#3 seed with loss + SEA win + NO win
NO:
-#1 seed with win + GB loss + SEA win
-#2 seed with win + GB win OR loss + SEA loss
-#3 seed with loss + SEA win
SEA:
-#1 seed with win + GB loss + NO loss
-#2 seed with win + (GB win + NO loss OR GB loss + NO win)
-#3 seed with loss OR win + GB win + NO win
WAS:
-#4 seed with win
-Eliminated with loss
DAL:
-#4 seed with win + WAS loss
-Eliminated with loss OR WAS win
NYG:
-#4 seed with win + WAS loss
-Eliminated with loss OR WAS win

Wild Cards

Possible tiebreakers:
-LAR > TB on head to head
-ARI > LAR on division record
-CHI > ARI on common games

-CHI > ARI > LAR with ARI > LAR on division record, then CHI > ARI on common games

Scenarios:
TB:
-#5 seed with win OR LAR loss
-#6 seed with loss + LAR win
LAR:
-#5 seed with win + TB loss
-#6 seed with win + TB win
-#7 seed with loss + CHI loss
-Eliminated with loss + CHI win
CHI:
-#6 seed with win + LAR loss
-#7 seed with ARI loss
-Eliminated with loss + ARI win
ARI:
-#6 seed with win + CHI loss
-#7 seed with win + CHI win
-Eliminated with loss

Potential for Resting Starters

None