Week 17 Playoff Scenarios 2018

By Michael Gertz
Thursday, December 27, 2018

The following are all possible playoff seeding scenarios for the final week of the season as well as all possible tiebreakers. Also listed are potential games where teams could rest starters for the playoffs. Scenarios with Wk 17 tie games are only listed if they would create a tiebreaking situation (and are labeled with asterisks). For full standings, records in tiebreaking categories, and tiebreaker process, visit the Standings page.

AFC

Current Standings

1. Kansas City Chiefs (11-4) -- vOAK
2. New England Patriots (10-5) -- vNYJ
3. Houston Texans (10-5) -- vJAC
4. Baltimore Ravens (9-6) -- vCLE
5. Los Angeles Chargers (11-4) -- @DEN
6. Indianapolis Colts (9-6) -- @TEN
7. Tennessee Titans (9-6) -- vIND
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6-1) -- vCIN

Determining Division Winners

Possible Tiebreakers:
-KC > LAC on division record
-IND > HOU on division record
-TEN > HOU on division record
-*PIT > BAL on division record
-HOU/IND/TEN 3-way tie not possible because IND plays TEN

Scenarios:
-NE has won AFC East
-BAL wins AFC North with win OR PIT loss = 1 - (28.9% * 89.3%) = 74.2%
-PIT wins AFC North with win + BAL loss = 89.3% * 28.9% = 25.8%
-HOU wins AFC South with win = 74.7%
-IND wins AFC South with win + HOU loss = 46.9% * 25.3% = 11.9%
-TEN wins AFC South with win + HOU loss = 53.1% * 25.3% = 13.4%
-KC wins AFC West with win OR LAC loss = 1 - (16.0% * 72.2%) = 88.4%
-LAC wins AFC West with win + KC loss = 72.2% * 16.0% = 11.6%

Division Winners Seeding

Possible tiebreakers:
-KC - HOU down to strength of victory
-NE > KC on head to head
-NE > HOU on head to head
-BAL > NE on conference record
-NE > IND on head to head
-TEN > NE on head to head
-BAL > IND on conference record
-BAL > TEN on head to head

-NE > KC & HOU on head to head
-BAL > NE & IND on conference record
-BAL > NE & TEN on conference record

Scenarios:
KC:
-#1 seed with win OR LAC loss + NE loss + (HOU loss OR strength of victory over HOU) = 84.0% + (16.0% * 27.8% * 9.0% * (25.3% + .5 * 74.7%)) = 84.3%
-#2 seed with loss + LAC loss + (NE win + (HOU loss OR strength of victory over HOU) OR HOU win + strength of victory under HOU + NE loss) = 16.0% * 27.8% * (91.0% * (1 - (74.7% * 0.5)) + (74.7% * 0.5 * 9.0%)) = 2.7%
-#3 seed with loss + LAC loss + NE win + HOU win + strength of victory under HOU = 16.0% * 27.8% * 91.0% * 74.7% * 0.5 = 1.5%
LAC:
-#1 seed with win + KC loss = 72.2% * 16.0% = 11.6%
NE:
-#1 seed with win + KC loss + LAC loss = 91.0% * 16.0% * 27.8% = 4.0%
-#2 seed with win + (KC win OR LAC win) OR loss + HOU loss + TEN loss + BAL loss = (91.0% * (1 - 16.0% * 27.8%)) + (9.0% * 25.3% * 46.9% * 28.9%) = 87.3%
-#3 seed with loss + ((HOU win OR TEN win) + BAL loss OR loss + BAL win + HOU loss + IND win) = (9.0% * (1 - (25.3% * 46.9%)) * 28.9%) + (9.0% * 71.1% * 25.3% * 46.9%) = 3.1%
-#4 seed with loss + BAL win + (HOU win OR TEN win) = 9.0% * 71.1% * (1 - (25.3% * 46.9%)) = 5.6%
HOU:
-#1 seed with win + KC loss + LAC loss + NE loss + strength of victory over KC = 74.7% * 16.0% * 27.8% * 9.0% * 0.5 = 0.1%
-#2 seed with win + (NE loss + (KC win OR LAC win OR strength of victory under KC) OR NE win + KC loss + LAC loss + strength of victory over KC) = 74.7 * ((9.0% * (1 - (16.0% * 27.8% * 0.5))) + (91.0% * 16.0% * 27.8% * 0.5)) = 8.1%
-#3 seed with win + NE win + (KC win OR LAC win OR strength of victory under KC) = 74.7% * 91.0% * (1 - (16.0% * 27.8% * 0.5)) = 66.5%
-#4* seed with loss + IND@TEN tie + BAL win + strength of victory under BAL
BAL:
-#2 seed with win + HOU loss + NE loss = 71.1% * 25.3% * 9.0% = 1.6%
-#3 seed with win + (HOU win + NE loss OR NE win + HOU loss) = 71.1% * ((74.7% * 9.0%) + (91.0% * 25.3%)) = 21.1%
-#4 seed with loss + PIT loss OR win + NE win + HOU win = (28.9% * 10.7%) + (71.1% * 91.0% * 74.7%) = 51.4%
IND:
-#3 seed with win + HOU loss + BAL loss = 46.9% * 25.3% * 28.9% = 3.4%
-#4 seed with win + HOU loss + BAL win = 46.9% * 25.3% * 71.1% = 8.4%
TEN:
-#2 seed with win + HOU loss + NE loss + BAL loss = 53.1% * 25.3% * 9.0% * 28.9% = 0.3%
-#3 seed with win + HOU loss + (NE win + BAL loss OR NE loss + BAL win) = 53.1% * 25.3% * ((91.0% * 28.9%) + (9.0% * 71.1%)) = 4.4%
-#4 seed with win + HOU loss + NE win + BAL win = 53.1% * 25.3% * 91.0% * 71.1% = 8.7%
PIT:
-#4 seed with win + BAL loss = 89.3% * 28.9% = 25.8%

Wild Cards

Possible tiebreakers:
-*IND > TEN on head to head
-*PIT > IND on common games

Scenarios:
KC:
-#5 seed with loss + LAC win = 16.0% * 72.2% = 11.6%
LAC:
-#5 seed with loss OR KC win = 1 - (72.2% * 16.0%) = 88.4%
HOU:
-#6 seed with loss = 25.3%
BAL:
-Eliminated with loss + PIT win = 28.9% * 89.3% = 25.8%
IND:
-#6 seed with win + HOU win = 46.9% * 74.7% = 35.0%
-Eliminated with loss = 53.1%
TEN:
-#6 seed with win + HOU win = 53.1% * 74.7% = 39.7%
-Eliminated with loss = 46.9%
PIT:
-#6* seed with win + BAL win + IND@TEN tie
-Eliminated with loss OR (BAL win + IND@TEN don't tie) = 1 - (89.3% * 28.9%) = 74.2%

Potential for Resting Starters:

None

NFC

Current Standings

1. New Orleans Saints (13-2) -- vCAR
2. Los Angeles Rams (12-3) -- vSF
3. Chicago Bears (11-4) -- @MIN
4. Dallas Cowboys (9-6) -- @NYG
5. Seattle Seahawks (9-6) -- vARI
6. Minnesota Vikings (8-6-1) -- vCHI
7. Philadelphia Eagles (8-7) -- @WAS

Determining Division Winners

Possible Tiebreakers:
-DAL > PHI on head to head

Scenarios:
-DAL has won NFC East
-CHI has won NFC North
-NO has won NFC South
-LAR has won NFC West

Division Winners Seeding

Possible tiebreakers:

-NO > LAR on head to head
-CHI > LAR on head to head

Scenarios:
NO:
-#1 seed
LAR:
-#2 seed with win OR CHI loss = 1 - (8.3% * 33.0%) = 97.3%
-#3 seed with loss + CHI win = 8.3% * 33.0% = 2.7%
CHI:
-#2 seed with win + LAR loss = 33.0% * 8.3% = 2.7%
-#3 seed with loss OR LAR win = 1 - (33.0% * 8.3%) = 97.3%
DAL:
-#4 seed

Wild Cards

Possible tiebreakers:

-SEA > PHI on conference record
-*SEA > MIN on head to head
-*MIN > PHI on head to head

Scenarios:
SEA:
-#5 seed with win OR MIN loss = 1 - (18.0% * 67.0%) = 87.9%
-#6 seed loss + MIN win = 18.0% * 67.0% = 12.1%
MIN:
-#5 seed with win + SEA loss = 67.0% * 18.0% = 12.1%
-#6 seed with win + SEA win OR loss + PHI loss = (67.0% * 82.0%) + (33.0% * 30.0%) = 64.8%
-Eliminated with loss + PHI win = 33.0% * 70.0% = 23.1%
PHI:
-#6 seed with win + MIN loss = 70.0% * 33.0% = 23.1%
-Eliminated with loss OR MIN win = 1 - (70.0% * 33.0%) = 76.9%

Potential for Resting Starters

-NO has clinched #1 seed and could rest starters
-LAR can only drop from #2 seed to #3 with CHI win, and could rest starters late in game if CHI is losing badly
-CHI can only go from #3 seed to #2 with LAR loss, and could rest starters late in game if LAR is winning by a lot
-DAL is locked into #4 seed and could rest starters
-SEA is locked into #5 or #6 seed and could rest starters