Wk 17 Playoff Scenarios 2017

By Michael Gertz
Sunday, December 31, 2017

The following are all possible playoff seeding scenarios and their odds for the final week of the season as well as all possible tiebreakers. Also listed are potential games where teams could rest starters for the playoffs. For full standings, records in tiebreaking categories, and individual team playoff seeding odds, visit the Standings page.

AFC

Current Standings

1. New England Patriots (12-3) -- vNYJ
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-3) -- vCLE
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-5) -- @TEN
4. Kansas City Chiefs (9-6) -- @DEN
5. Baltimore Ravens (9-6) -- vCIN
6. Tennessee Titans (8-7) -- vJAC
7. Los Angeles Chargers (8-7) -- vOAK
8. Buffalo Bills (8-7) -- @MIA

Determining Division Winners

Possible Tiebreakers:
-KC > LAC on head to head sweep

Scenarios:
-NE has won AFC East
-PIT has won AFC North
-JAC has won AFC South
-KC has won AFC West

Division Winners Seeding

Possible tiebreakers:
-NE > PIT on head to head win
-JAC > KC on conference record

Scenarios:
NE:
-#1 seed with win OR loss + PIT loss = 97% + (3%)*(32%) = 98%
-#2 seed with loss + PIT win = (3%)*(68%) = 2%
PIT:
-#1 seed with win + NE loss = (68%)*(3%) = 2%
-#2 seed with loss OR win + NE win = 32% + (68%)*(97%) = 98%
JAC:
-#3 seed = 100%
KC:
-#4 seed = 100%

Wild Cards

Possible tiebreakers:

-TEN > BAL on head to head win
-BUF > BAL on strength of victory
-BAL > LAC on conference record
-TEN > BUF on conference record
-TEN > LAC on conference record
-LAC > BUF on head to head win

-TEN > BUF > BAL with TEN > BUF & BAL on conference record, then BUF > BAL on strength of victory
-TEN > BAL > LAC on conference record
-BUF > BAL > LAC with BUF & BAL > LAC on conference record, then BUF > BAL on strength of victory, then BAL > LAC on conference record
-TEN > LAC & BUF on conference record

-TEN > BUF > BAL & LAC with TEN > BUF & BAL & LAC on conference record; then BUF > BAL & LAC with BUF & BAL > LAC on conference record, then BUF > BAL on strength of victory

Scenarios:
BAL:
-#5 seed with win OR loss + TEN loss + BUF loss = 70% + (30%)*(49%)*(35%) = 75%
-#6 seed with loss + (TEN loss + BUF win OR BUF loss + TEN win) = (30%)*((49%)*(65%)+(51%)*(35%)) = 15%
-Eliminated with loss + TEN win + BUF win = (30%)*(51%)*(65%) = 10%
TEN:
-#5 seed with win + BAL loss = (51%)*(30%) = 16%
-#6 seed with win + BAL win OR loss + LAC loss + BUF loss = (51%)*(70%) + (49%)*(37%)*(35%) = 42%
-Eliminated with loss + (LAC win OR BUF win) = (49%)*(1 - (37%)*(35%)) = 43%
LAC:
-#6 seed with win + (TEN loss + (BUF loss OR BAL win)) = (63%)*(49%)*(1 - (65%)*(30%)) = 25%
-Eliminated with loss OR win + (TEN win OR BUF win + BAL loss) = 37% + (63%)*(1 - ((49%)*(1 - (65%)*(30%)))) = 75%
BUF:
-#5 seed with win + BAL loss + TEN loss = (64%)*(30%)*(49%) = 9%
-#6 seed with win + (BAL loss + TEN win OR TEN loss + BAL win + LAC loss) = (65%)*(1 - ((1 - (30%)*(51%))*(1 - (49%)*(70%)*(37%)))) = 17%
-Eliminated with loss OR win + BAL win + (TEN win OR LAC win) = 35% + (65%)*(70%)*(1 - (49%)*(37%)) = 74%

Potential for Resting Starters:

-PIT has indicated they will rest starters despite a chance for #1 seed
-JAC is guaranteed #3 seed but has indicated they will not rest starters
-KC is guaranteed #4 seed and has indicated they will rest starters

NFC

Current Standings

1. Philadelphia Eagles (13-2) -- vDAL
2. Minnesota Vikings (12-3) -- vCHI
3. Los Angeles Rams (11-4) -- vSF
4. New Orleans Saints (11-4) -- @TB
5. Carolina Panthers (11-4) -- @ATL
6. Atlanta Falcons (9-6) -- vCAR
7. Seattle Seahawks (9-6) -- vARI
8*. Detroit Lions (8-7) -- vGB
9*. Dallas Cowboys (8-7) -- @PHI

Determining Division Winners

Possible Tiebreakers:
-NO > CAR on head to head sweep

Scenarios:
-PHI has won NFC East
-MIN has won NFC North
-LAR has won NFC West
-NO wins NFC South with win OR loss + CAR loss
-CAR wins NFC South with win + NO loss

Division Winners Seeding

Possible tiebreakers:

-PHI > MIN on common games
-MIN > LAR on head to head win
-MIN > NO on head to head win
-CAR > MIN on head to head win
-LAR > NO on head to head win
-LAR > CAR on common games

-MIN > LAR > NO on head to head
-MIN > LAR > CAR with MIN > LAR & CAR on conference record, then LAR > CAR on common games

Scenarios:
PHI:
-#1 seed = 100%
MIN:
-#2 seed with win OR CAR loss OR NO win OR LAR win = 1 - (14%)*(34%)*(33%)*(60%) = 99%
-#3 seed with loss + CAR win + NO loss + LAR loss = (14%)*(34%)*(33%)*(60%) = 1%
LAR:
-#3 seed with win OR loss + NO loss + CAR loss = 40% + (60%)*(33%)*(66%) = 54%
-#4 seed with loss + (NO win OR CAR win) = (60%)*(1 - (33%)*(66%)) = 47%
NO:
-#3 seed with win + LAR loss = (67%)*(60%) = 40%
-#4 seed with win + LAR win OR loss + CAR loss = (67%)*(40%) + (33%)*(66%) = 49%
CAR:
-#2 seed with win + NO loss + MIN loss + LAR loss = (34%)*(33%)*(14%)*(60%) = 1%
-#3 seed with win + NO loss + MIN win + LAR loss = (34%)*(33%)*(86%)*(60%) = 6%
-#4 seed with win + NO loss + LAR win = (34%)*(33%)*(40%) = 5%

Wild Cards

Possible tiebreakers:

-ATL > SEA on head to head win

-ATL > SEA & DAL on head to head sweep
-ATL > DET & SEA on head to head sweep

Scenarios:
NO:
-#5 seed with loss + CAR win = (33%)*(34%) = 11%
CAR:
-#5 seed with loss OR NO win = 1 - (34%)*(33%) = 89%
ATL:
-#6 seed with win OR SEA loss 1 - (34%)*(85%) = 71%
-Eliminated with loss + SEA win = (34%)*(85%) = 29%
SEA:
-#6 seed with win + ATL loss = (85%)*(34%) = 29%
-Eliminated with loss OR ATL win = 1 - (85%)*(34%) = 71%
DET:
-Eliminated, can only be involved in tiebreakers
DAL:
-Eliminated, can only be involved in tiebreakers

Potential for Resting Starters:

-PHI is guaranteed #1 seed and has indicated they will partially rest starters
-LAR is guaranteed #3 or #4 seed and has indicated they will rest starters