2 Week Playoff Scenarios 2018

By Michael Gertz
Saturday, December 22, 2018

The following are all possible playoff seeding scenarios for the final 2 weeks of the season as well as all possible tiebreakers. Also listed are potential games where teams could rest starters for the playoffs. For full standings, records in tiebreaking categories, and tiebreaker process, visit the Standings page.

AFC

Current Standings

1. Kansas City Chiefs (11-3) -- @SEA, vOAK
2. Houston Texans (10-4) -- @PHI, vJAC
3. New England Patriots (9-5) -- vBUF, vNYJ
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5-1) -- @NO, vCIN
5. Los Angeles Chargers (11-3) -- vBAL, @DEN
6. Baltimore Ravens (8-6) -- @LAC, vCLE
7. Indianapolis Colts (8-6) -- vNYG, @TEN
8. Tennessee Titans (8-6) -- vWAS, vIND
9. Miami Dolphins (7-7) -- vJAC, @BUF
10. Cleveland Browns (6-7-1) -- vCIN, @BAL
11*. Denver Broncos (6-8) -- @OAK, vLAC
12*. Cincinnati Bengals (6-8) -- @CLE, @PIT
-CLE can only make playoffs in scenarios where other teams tie
*DEN & CIN are eliminated because IND & TEN still play each other, making the wild card minimum 9 wins.

Determining Division Winners

Possible Tiebreakers:
-MIA > NE on division record
-PIT > CLE on head to head
-IND > HOU on division record
-TEN > HOU on division record
-KC > LAC on division record, if KC beats OAK OR LAC loses to DEN, or common games if KC loses to OAK + LAC beats DEN
*HOU/IND/TEN 3-way tie not possible because IND plays TEN Wk 17

Scenarios:
-NE wins AFC East with 1 win or 1 MIA loss
-MIA wins AFC East with 2 wins + 2 NE losses
-PIT wins AFC North with >= as many wins as BAL
-BAL wins AFC North with more wins than PIT
-HOU wins AFC South with 1 win or Wk 16 loss by winner of IND@TEN Wk 17
-IND wins AFC South with 2 wins + 2 HOU losses
-TEN wins AFC South with 2 wins + 2 HOU losses
-KC wins AFC West with more wins than LAC
-LAC wins AFC West with more wins than KC

Division Winners Seeding

Possible tiebreakers:
-KC > HOU on conference record if KC wins vOAK Wk 17, or common games if HOU loses vJAC Wk 17
-KC - HOU down to strength of victory if KC loses vOAK Wk 17 + HOU wins vJAC Wk 17
-NE > KC on head to head
-HOU > LAC on common games if LAC loses @DEN Wk 17
-LAC - HOU down to strength of victory if LAC wins @DEN Wk 17
-NE > HOU on head to head
-HOU - BAL down to strength of victory
-BAL > NE on conference record
-NE > IND on head to head
-TEN > NE on head to head
-BAL > IND on conference record
-BAL > TEN on head to head
-MIA > BAL on conference record

-NE > KC & HOU on head to head
-HOU & BAL > NE on conference record
-BAL > NE & IND on conference record
-BAL > NE & TEN on conference record

Scenarios:
KC:
-#1 seed with finish above LAC, HOU, & NE
-#2 seed with finish above LAC but only 1 of HOU/NE
-#3 seed with finish above LAC + below HOU & NE
LAC:
-#1 seed with finish above KC & HOU
-#2 seed with finish above KC + lose tiebreaker at 12-4 with HOU
HOU:
-#1 seed with finish above KC, LAC, & NE
-#2 seed with finish above IND@TEN Wk 17 winner + exactly 2 of KC/LAC leader, NE, & PIT/BAL leader
-#3 seed with finish above IND@TEN Wk 17 winner + exactly 1 of KC/LAC leader, NE, & PIT/BAL leader
-#4 seed with 2 losses + Wk 16 loss IND@TEN Wk 17 winner + finish behind PIT/BAL leader
NE:
-#1 seed with 2 wins + 2 KC losses + 2 LAC losses + <= 1 HOU win
-#2 seed with finish above exactly 2 of KC/LAC leader, HOU/IND/TEN leader, & PIT/BAL leader
-#3 seed with finish above MIA + exactly 1 of HOU/IND/TEN leader & PIT/BAL leader
-#4 seed with finish above MIA + below HOU/IND/TEN leader & PIT/BAL leader
PIT:
-#2 seed with 2 wins + 2 HOU losses + >= 1 NE loss
-#3 seed with finish above BAL + exactly 1 of HOU/IND/TEN leader & NE/MIA leader
-#4 seed with finish above BAL + below HOU/IND/TEN leader & NE/MIA leader
BAL:
-#2 seed with 2 wins + >= 1 PIT loss + 2 HOU losses + tiebreaker over HOU + >= 1 NE loss
-#3 seed with finish above PIT + exactly 1 of HOU/IND/TEN leader & NE/MIA leader
-#4 seed with finish above PIT + below HOU/IND/TEN leader & NE/MIA leader
IND:
-#2 seed with 2 wins + 2 HOU losses + 2 NE losses + >= 1 PIT loss + >= 1 BAL loss
-#3 seed with 2 wins + 2 HOU losses + finish above exactly 1 of NE & PIT/BAL leader
-#4 seed with 2 wins + 2 HOU losses + >= 1 NE win + (2 PIT wins OR 2 BAL wins)
TEN:
-#2 seed with 2 wins + 2 HOU losses + >= 1 NE loss + >= 1 PIT loss + >= 1 BAL loss
-#3 seed with 2 wins + 2 HOU losses + finish above exactly 1 of NE & PIT/BAL leader
-#4 seed with 2 wins + 2 HOU losses + 2 NE wins + (2 PIT wins OR 2 BAL wins)
MIA:
-#3 seed with 2 wins + 2 NE losses + 2 PIT losses + >= 1 BAL loss
-#4 seed with 2 wins + 2 NE losses + (1 PIT win OR 2 BAL wins)

Wild Cards

Possible tiebreakers:
-HOU - BAL down to strength of victory
-BAL > NE on conference record
-NE > IND on head to head
-TEN > NE on head to head
-BAL > IND on conference record if at 10-6
-BAL - IND down to strength of victory if at 9-7
-BAL > TEN on head to head
-MIA > BAL on conference record
-IND > TEN on head to head if IND wins @TEN Wk 17
-IND - TEN down to strength of victory if TEN wins vIND Wk 17
-IND > MIA on head to head
-MIA > TEN on head to head

-BAL > NE & IND on conference record
-BAL > NE & TEN on conference record
-MIA > BAL & IND on conference record
-MIA > BAL & TEN on conference record

Scenarios:
KC:
-#5 seed with more losses than LAC
LAC:
-#5 seed with >= as many losses as KC
HOU:
-#6 seed with 2 losses + Wk 16 win by IND@TEN Wk 17 winner + (>= 1 PIT loss OR >= 1 BAL loss OR tiebreaker vs BAL)
-Eliminated with 2 losses + Wk 16 win by IND@TEN Wk 17 winner + 2 PIT wins + 2 BAL wins + lose tiebreaker vs BAL
NE:
-#6 seed with 2 losses + 2 MIA wins + (2 PIT losses OR 2 BAL losses) + IND win @TEN Wk 17 + IND loss vNYG Wk 16 + (TEN loss vWAS Wk 16 OR IND>TEN tiebreaker)
-Eliminated with 2 losses + 2 MIA wins + (>= 1 PIT win + >= 1 BAL win OR TEN wins vIND Wk 17 OR IND wins vNYG Wk 16 OR (TEN wins vWAS Wk 16 + IND>TEN tiebreaker))
PIT:
-#6 seed with exactly 1 win + 2 BAL wins + Wk 16 loss by Wk 17 IND@TEN winner
-Eliminated with 2 losses + >= 1 BAL win OR 1 loss + 2 BAL wins + Wk 16 win by Wk 17 IND@TEN winner
BAL:
-#6 seed with 2 wins + 2 PIT wins + (HOU win OR Wk 16 loss by Wk 17 IND@TEN winner OR tiebreaker vs HOU) OR 1 win + >= 1 PIT win + Wk 16 loss by Wk 17 IND@TEN winner + (1 MIA loss OR 2 NE losses)
-Eliminated with 2 losses OR 1 loss + >= 1 PIT win + Wk 16 win by Wk 17 IND@TEN winner OR (2 MIA wins + 1 NE win)
IND:
-#6 seed with 2 wins + >= 1 HOU win + (1 PIT loss OR 1 BAL loss) OR (win @TEN Wk 17 OR Wk 16 win + TEN Wk 16 loss + tiebreaker) + (2 PIT losses OR 2 BAL losses) + (1 MIA loss OR 1 NE win)
-Eliminated with 2 losses OR 2 PIT wins + 2 BAL wins + 1 HOU win OR 1 loss + 2 MIA wins + 2 NE losses OR loss @TEN Wk 17 + (lose tiebreaker OR 1 BAL win) OR loss vNYG Wk 16 + 1 BAL win TEN:
-#6 seed with 2 wins + >=1 HOU win + (1 PIT loss OR 1 BAL loss) OR win vIND Wk 17 + (IND loss Wk 16 OR win tiebreaker) + (2 PIT losses OR 2 BAL losses) + (1 MIA loss OR 2 NE losses)
-Eliminated with loss vIND Wk 17 OR Wk 16 loss + (IND win Wk 16 + lose tiebreaker OR 1 PIT win OR 1 BAL win OR 2 MIA wins + >= 1 NE win) OR 2 PIT wins + 2 BAL wins
MIA:
-#6 seed with 2 wins + >= 1 NE win + (3-way tie at 9-7 with BAL & IND/TEN leader OR TEN finishes above IND + TEN Wk 16 loss + (1 BAL loss OR 2 PIT losses))
-Eliminated with >=1 loss OR IND finishes over TEN + BAL not 9-7 OR 2 BAL wins + >= 1 PIT win
CLE*:
-#6 seed with 2 wins + *IND@TEN Wk 17 tie + BAL Wk 16 loss + IND Wk 16 loss + TEN Wk 16 loss + >= 1 MIA loss
-Eliminated with >= 1 loss OR *IND@TEN don't tie OR BAL Wk 16 win OR IND Wk 16 win OR TEN Wk 16 win OR 2 MIA wins

Potential for Resting Starters:

-KC could clinch #1 seed in Wk 16 with win + LAC loss + HOU loss
-LAC could be locked into #5 seed in Wk 16 with loss + KC win
-NE could be locked into a #3 or #4 seed in Wk 16 with loss + HOU win + MIA loss
-PIT could be locked into a #3 or #4 seed in Wk 16 with win + BAL loss + HOU win

NFC

Current Standings

1. New Orleans Saints (12-2) -- vPIT, vCAR
2. Los Angeles Rams (11-3) -- @ARI, vSF
3. Chicago Bears (10-4) -- @SF, @MIN
4. Dallas Cowboys (8-6) -- vTB, @NYG
5. Seattle Seahawks (8-6) -- vKC, vARI
6. Minnesota Vikings (7-6-1) -- @DET, vCHI
7. Philadelphia Eagles (7-7) -- vHOU, @WAS
8. Washington Redskins (7-7) -- @TEN, vPHI
9. Carolina Panthers (6-8) -- vATL, @NO
10*. Green Bay Packers (5-8-1) -- @NYJ, vDET
*GB are eliminated due to head to head tiebreaker with MIN

Determining Division Winners

Possible Tiebreakers:
-DAL > PHI on head to head sweep
-DAL > WAS on division record

-DAL > PHI & WAS on division record if WAS wins vPHI Wk 17
-DAL & PHI > WAS on division record if PHI wins @WAS Wk 17

Scenarios:
-DAL wins NFC East with 1 win OR Wk 16 loss by winner of PHI@WAS Wk 17
-PHI wins NFC East with 2 wins + 2 DAL losses
-WAS wins NFC East with 2 wins + 2 DAL losses
-CHI has won NFC North
-NO has won NFC South
-LAR has won NFC West

Division Winners Seeding

Possible tiebreakers:

-NO > LAR on head to head
-CHI > NO on conference record
-CHI > LAR on head to head
-DAL > CHI on conference record

-CHI > NO & LAR on conference record

Scenarios:
NO:
-#1 seed with 1 win OR (1 LAR loss + 1 CHI loss)
-#2 seed with 2 losses + (2 LAR wins OR 2 CHI wins)
-#3 seed with 2 losses + 2 LAR wins + 2 CHI wins
LAR:
-#1 seed with 2 wins + 2 NO losses
-#2 seed with <= 1 more win than NO + at least as many wins as CHI
-#3 seed with >= 1 more loss than CHI
CHI:
-#1 seed with 2 wins + 2 NO losses + 1 LAR loss
-#2 seed with 1 win + 2 LAR losses OR 2 wins + >= 1 LAR loss + >= 1 NO win
-#3 seed with <= as many wins as LAR + <= 1 more loss than DAL
-#4 seed with 2 losses + 2 DAL wins
DAL:
-#3 seed with 2 wins + 2 CHI losses
-#4 seed with 2 losses + Wk 16 loss by PHI@WAS Wk 17 winner OR 1 win + 1 loss OR 2 wins + >= 1 CHI win
PHI:
-#4 seed with 2 wins + 2 DAL losses
WAS:
-#4 seed with 2 wins + 2 DAL losses

Wild Cards

Possible tiebreakers:

-SEA > DAL on head to head
-DAL > PHI on head to head
-DAL > WAS on division record
-CAR > DAL on head to head
-SEA > PHI on conference record
-SEA > WAS on conference record if SEA wins vARI Wk 17 OR WAS loses vPHI Wk 17
-SEA - WAS down to strength of victory if SEA loses vARI Wk 17 + WAS wins vPHI Wk 17
-SEA > CAR on head to head
-PHI > WAS on head to head if PHI wins @WAS Wk 17, or on common games if WAS loses Wk 16
-WAS > PHI on conference record if 2 WAS wins
-CAR > PHI on head to head
-WAS > CAR on head to head
-MIN > GB on head to head

-SEA > DAL & CAR on head to head sweep
-SEA > PHI & CAR on conference record
-SEA & WAS > CAR on head to head sweep

Scenarios:
DAL:
-#6 seed with 2 losses + Wk 16 win by Wk 17 PHI@WAS winner + 2 MIN losses + >= 1 CAR loss
-Eliminated with 2 losses + Wk 16 win by Wk 17 PHI@WAS winner + (>=1 MIN loss OR 2 CAR wins)
SEA:
-#5 seed with finish above MIN, PHI, & WAS
-#6 seed with finish above exactly 2 of MIN, PHI, & WAS
-Eliminated with finish behind 3 of DAL, MIN, PHI & WAS
MIN:
-#5 seed with finish above SEA, CAR, & 2 of DAL/PHI/WAS
-#6 seed with finish above exactly 2 of SEA, DAL, PHI, & WAS
-Eliminated with finish behind 3 of DAL, SEA, PHI, & WAS
PHI:
-#5 seed with 2 wins + >= 1 DAL win + 2 SEA losses + 1 MIN loss
-#6 seed with win @WAS Wk 17 + finish below DAL + above exactly 2 of SEA, MIN, & CAR
-Eliminated with loss @WAS Wk 17 OR finish below 2 of SEA, MIN, & CAR
WAS:
-#5 seed with win vPHI Wk 17 + finish below DAL + above SEA, MIN, & CAR
-#6 seed with win vPHI Wk 17 + finish below DAL + above exactly 1 of SEA & MIN
-Eliminated with loss vPHI Wk 17 OR finish below SEA & MIN
CAR:
-#6 seed with 2 wins + 2 MIN losses + (PHI Wk 16 loss + PHI win @WAS Wk 17 OR 2 DAL losses)
-Eliminated with >= 1 loss OR >= 1 MIN win OR (PHI Wk 16 win OR WAS win vPHI Wk 17) + >= 1 DAL win

Potential for Resting Starters:

-NO could clinch #1 seed Wk 16 with win OR (LAR loss + CHI loss)
-LAR could be locked into #2 seed in Wk 16 with win + NO win + CHI loss
-CHI could be locked into #3 or #4 seed in Wk 16 with loss + LAR win
-CHI could be locked into #3 seed in Wk 16 with loss + LAR win + DAL loss
-DAL could be locked into #3 or #4 seed in Wk 16 with win OR PHI loss + WAS loss
-DAL could be locked into #4 seed in Wk 16 with win + CHI win OR loss + PHI loss + WAS loss
-SEA could be locked into #5 or #6 seed in Wk 16 with win + (MIN loss OR WAS loss)
-SEA could be locked into #5 seed in Wk 16 with win + MIN loss + WAS loss
-MIN could be locked into #5 or #6 seed in Wk 16 with win + PHI loss + WAS loss