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-->Full explanation of our college football ratings
2015 College Football Predictive Ratings
Rk College Conference Rat W L R0 R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 R17
128North Carolina-CharlotteConference USA-30.3110-25.5-23.2-22.8-30.0-29.9-30.9-31.6-29.8-32.1-31.6-30.4-29.2-30.2-30.5-30.3-30.3-30.3-30.3
125Eastern MichiganMid-American-24.6111-23.1-23.2-16.8-18.2-22.4-18.7-21.5-23.7-23.5-24.6-25.5-26.2-26.1-24.6-24.6-24.5-24.6-24.6
127Louisiana-MonroeSun Belt-24.6111-13.5-13.2-13.3-12.3-10.9-14.7-14.9-19.0-20.7-20.6-23.1-25.1-25.7-25.1-25.2-25.2-24.6-24.6
126New Mexico StateSun Belt-24.639-21.5-23.4-25.6-26.0-26.3-25.0-26.2-26.3-30.3-28.5-26.3-26.0-24.3-24.7-25.0-25.0-24.6-24.6
124North TexasConference USA-23.7110-14.5-14.4-18.8-19.4-22.8-26.0-25.9-24.7-23.7-22.8-24.3-22.5-23.2-23.8-23.8-23.8-23.7-23.7
123HawaiiMountain West-22.6210-12.1-8.3-7.6-8.5-9.4-14.6-16.4-16.1-15.7-19.2-20.0-22.2-23.3-23.5-23.4-23.4-22.6-22.6
122Old DominionConference USA-22.447-16.5-16.1-14.1-15.9-23.4-22.5-22.6-23.3-24.7-24.9-23.5-22.9-22.8-22.3-22.4-22.3-22.4-22.4
121Texas StateSun Belt-22.329-9.7-12.4-12.9-14.4-17.8-17.5-20.2-19.7-17.0-17.8-20.4-22.1-21.6-21.2-22.6-22.6-22.3-22.3
120Texas-El PasoConference USA-22.147-13.8-14.5-21.1-20.7-20.8-23.3-25.5-26.2-25.1-24.9-23.7-24.3-22.4-22.1-22.2-22.2-22.1-22.1
119Miami (Ohio)Mid-American-21.829-14.3-14.2-22.2-20.1-23.0-21.7-22.6-25.2-25.3-24.0-22.8-23.0-21.8-21.4-21.4-21.4-21.8-21.8
118Central FloridaAmerican Athletic-21.2011-0.3-4.0-5.5-4.2-4.3-8.4-12.5-12.0-14.8-16.8-16.7-17.4-19.9-21.0-20.9-21.0-21.2-21.2
117Kent StateMid-American-20.929-16.1-23.1-23.1-18.9-17.8-18.2-18.2-17.2-20.7-20.8-19.8-20.5-20.2-20.6-20.6-20.6-20.9-20.9
116KansasBig 12-20.7011-2.8-2.7-10.5-10.9-11.9-13.9-17.4-14.2-16.5-18.2-20.0-17.0-18.7-19.5-19.6-19.6-20.7-20.7
114IdahoSun Belt-20.138-19.6-22.8-21.6-22.9-24.2-23.4-23.6-22.5-20.5-21.5-21.4-21.9-20.8-20.4-20.6-20.6-20.1-20.1
115TulaneAmerican Athletic-20.129-10.1-14.6-19.9-20.6-21.0-16.7-19.4-21.0-19.0-18.5-18.1-17.5-19.6-19.8-19.9-19.9-20.1-20.1
113RiceConference USA-19.447-7.8-7.7-7.4-6.0-10.4-15.6-13.5-13.3-13.3-14.6-15.6-19.9-19.8-19.6-19.6-19.5-19.4-19.4
112Texas-San AntonioConference USA-19.239-13.8-9.3-10.7-16.5-16.5-15.0-12.8-15.4-14.8-16.3-17.2-17.3-17.2-19.1-19.1-19.1-19.2-19.2
111South AlabamaSun Belt-18.847-13.4-13.3-16.7-12.5-19.2-17.7-17.6-19.3-19.6-19.4-18.8-18.2-18.9-20.0-19.2-19.1-18.8-18.8
110Fresno StateMountain West-18.229-7.1-6.9-12.7-12.8-15.8-17.2-20.4-19.1-20.6-19.8-20.5-17.8-18.9-18.9-18.9-18.9-18.2-18.2
109WyomingMountain West-17.929-12.5-12.4-20.9-19.5-22.3-20.5-19.7-17.8-16.0-16.6-18.0-18.9-18.7-18.5-18.6-18.6-17.9-17.9
108Louisiana-LafayetteSun Belt-17.538-7.4-5.1-4.1-4.3-11.7-13.3-11.2-12.4-12.4-13.4-14.0-14.6-16.1-16.2-17.7-17.7-17.5-17.5
107Ball StateMid-American-16.929-10.8-10.7-10.5-9.5-7.4-6.8-9.0-13.3-12.5-12.4-15.4-15.2-15.4-16.6-16.4-16.3-16.9-16.9
106MassachusettsMid-American-16.739-16.5-16.3-21.2-17.0-16.6-14.6-15.2-16.0-15.3-15.8-16.3-16.1-17.5-16.3-16.2-16.2-16.7-16.7
105Southern MethodistAmerican Athletic-16.729-15.5-17.1-13.8-11.6-11.2-13.5-11.8-11.4-12.5-12.9-14.0-15.5-13.3-16.0-16.2-16.4-16.7-16.7
104Florida InternationalConference USA-15.747-11.5-7.6-8.3-8.2-7.0-9.4-7.6-8.2-7.5-9.7-9.9-12.9-15.9-15.8-15.8-15.8-15.7-15.7
103Nevada-Las VegasMountain West-15.729-16.7-15.3-16.2-13.5-12.1-10.8-11.0-13.1-12.9-14.0-12.4-13.3-15.4-16.4-16.5-16.4-15.7-15.7
102Florida AtlanticConference USA-14.139-9.3-9.7-9.7-13.1-14.1-15.2-15.6-16.1-18.8-16.6-15.7-16.1-13.9-14.0-14.0-14.0-14.1-14.1
101ArmyIndependent-13.619-15.3-15.2-15.0-13.3-10.0-7.1-10.6-11.6-12.5-12.2-12.9-14.6-15.0-15.3-15.2-13.6-13.6-13.6
100Georgia StateSun Belt-13.666-23.0-25.0-23.7-23.3-25.1-24.8-27.7-22.1-22.7-22.2-21.8-18.7-17.6-17.0-13.4-13.4-13.6-13.6
99BuffaloMid-American-13.047-15.2-15.0-13.1-7.0-8.7-10.0-9.2-12.7-9.8-9.9-10.1-10.3-11.4-12.5-12.5-12.5-13.0-13.0
98New MexicoMountain West-10.766-12.9-12.7-18.2-16.5-15.6-15.1-16.3-16.8-17.3-17.6-15.7-12.7-13.2-11.8-11.8-11.8-10.7-10.7
97TroySun Belt-10.638-17.6-18.0-18.0-15.0-14.2-17.5-16.8-18.8-13.5-11.3-8.9-12.0-11.8-12.8-11.1-11.1-10.6-10.6
96Oregon StatePac 12-9.41102.82.9-2.3-3.0-1.3-0.3-4.7-6.5-7.1-6.4-8.2-8.9-11.0-10.0-9.9-9.9-9.4-9.4
95NevadaMountain West-8.966-6.5-6.4-10.2-7.2-7.0-9.8-8.0-10.8-10.3-11.4-10.6-10.2-9.7-10.0-10.0-10.0-8.9-8.9
94AkronMid-American-8.875-15.3-15.8-15.4-16.0-9.7-9.4-6.9-11.7-11.2-11.3-11.2-10.8-9.7-8.9-9.0-9.0-8.8-8.8
93PurdueBig Ten-8.1110-3.0-2.2-3.7-7.8-9.9-6.9-9.9-8.4-8.2-5.3-8.3-7.0-6.7-7.5-7.4-7.4-8.1-8.1
91Colorado StateMountain West-7.766-4.4-4.3-3.3-4.9-6.2-7.5-7.5-6.6-7.5-8.9-7.9-7.5-7.2-7.9-7.9-7.9-7.7-7.7
92Ohio U.Mid-American-7.775-13.1-9.6-5.0-5.6-5.2-5.2-2.8-8.5-11.0-10.6-11.8-10.0-9.2-7.8-7.8-7.8-7.7-7.7
90San Jose StateMountain West-7.657-11.9-11.8-15.3-14.4-9.8-8.8-9.0-12.5-11.9-11.2-9.5-9.2-8.6-9.0-9.0-9.0-7.6-7.6
89RutgersBig Ten-6.9382.82.91.0-4.2-4.1-4.4-3.9-1.3-4.5-6.1-7.0-7.2-6.7-7.2-7.1-7.0-6.9-6.9
88TulsaAmerican Athletic-6.867-11.8-11.2-7.5-5.2-5.0-5.1-6.5-6.2-7.4-6.4-6.8-6.5-7.5-7.1-7.1-7.3-6.8-6.8
87ConnecticutAmerican Athletic-4.857-12.9-12.8-13.0-8.4-8.5-6.6-3.6-4.7-7.0-4.6-5.0-4.9-3.7-4.5-4.5-4.5-4.8-4.8
86Arkansas StateSun Belt-4.284-6.5-11.5-8.9-11.2-13.3-12.2-12.9-10.4-9.6-10.1-7.6-5.2-5.2-4.6-3.3-3.3-4.2-4.2
85Wake ForestACC-3.329-3.5-3.3-5.1-5.9-5.3-3.1-3.1-4.8-5.9-5.2-4.8-4.2-3.3-3.1-3.1-2.9-3.3-3.3
84ColoradoPac 12-3.239-1.3-4.8-1.3-0.7-1.1-3.7-5.6-5.4-4.8-4.0-4.9-3.6-4.4-3.5-3.4-3.4-3.2-3.2
83Northern IllinoisMid-American-3.176-7.2-8.2-8.5-1.5-1.0-2.5-1.9-0.10.50.31.31.51.80.3-0.5-0.4-3.1-3.1
82Central MichiganMid-American-2.966-10.0-9.1-9.1-5.2-5.1-4.3-5.0-0.3-0.30.00.1-0.1-0.2-2.0-2.1-2.1-2.9-2.9
81MarylandBig Ten-2.7293.94.1-6.3-2.3-4.8-6.9-5.4-4.5-2.7-2.4-1.9-1.6-3.0-2.3-2.3-2.3-2.7-2.7
80Middle Tennessee StateConference USA-2.666-8.4-8.2-5.32.01.91.2-1.8-1.9-4.7-5.5-4.5-4.5-3.8-2.3-2.2-2.2-2.6-2.6
79Iowa StateBig 12-1.329-2.8-2.7-5.3-4.8-3.3-0.4-4.2-4.0-2.40.3-0.90.00.4-0.2-0.3-0.3-1.3-1.3
78SyracuseACC-1.038-1.3-1.10.6-1.10.60.4-3.3-2.4-1.5-1.7-2.6-1.3-1.1-0.7-0.7-0.7-1.0-1.0
77IllinoisBig Ten-0.447-0.46.96.91.51.52.32.03.31.4-2.01.60.90.3-0.1-0.10.0-0.4-0.4
75CincinnatiAmerican Athletic-0.3661.71.8-1.1-4.5-3.9-0.30.0-0.11.14.35.04.21.42.52.52.4-0.3-0.3
76Utah StateMountain West-0.357-7.1-6.9-4.1-3.2-1.4-0.14.79.43.14.52.52.01.2-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.3
74VanderbiltSEC-0.1380.3-2.2-1.6-0.53.33.12.61.21.6-0.71.31.2-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.1-0.1
73Air ForceMountain West0.076-9.0-8.9-5.4-3.5-2.7-4.9-5.8-7.2-5.8-1.2-0.7-0.11.4-0.4-0.2-0.20.00.0
72KentuckySEC0.1475.23.16.45.54.85.25.35.03.41.30.50.20.5-0.4-0.6-0.60.10.1
71East CarolinaAmerican Athletic0.247-3.4-3.30.8-4.4-1.13.04.03.71.70.2-0.6-0.61.81.01.00.80.20.2
70Louisiana TechConference USA0.3840.70.90.22.22.44.53.80.83.23.74.73.82.0-0.9-1.0-1.00.30.3
69Boston CollegeACC0.6193.23.33.32.51.32.20.71.53.21.40.2-0.11.21.31.21.30.60.6
68MinnesotaBig Ten0.6674.96.05.3-0.7-1.4-2.80.4-2.4-3.2-1.7-1.00.00.70.50.50.50.60.6
66Georgia SouthernSun Belt1.284-9.9-14.7-7.9-8.0-4.6-3.0-3.4-2.3-3.5-3.0-3.4-0.80.61.9-1.7-1.71.21.2
67MarshallConference USA1.2936.15.60.9-0.2-1.9-2.1-0.6-0.3-2.3-1.9-2.31.71.61.11.21.21.21.2
65Appalachian StateSun Belt1.6102-13.3-13.2-12.7-13.0-2.2-2.8-0.44.76.14.11.32.02.32.41.71.71.61.6
63Southern MississippiConference USA1.885-12.1-10.4-10.6-8.9-6.6-5.1-7.5-5.7-4.1-4.7-4.9-0.7-0.62.01.41.41.81.8
64VirginiaACC1.8386.55.66.76.4-1.6-1.70.1-0.60.11.01.71.62.02.22.12.21.81.8
62ArizonaPac 122.06610.96.78.98.24.60.54.93.83.70.21.52.62.11.92.02.02.02.0
61IndianaBig Ten2.0570.91.01.40.82.63.91.90.4-1.2-1.1-1.0-0.81.12.22.22.32.02.0
60Western MichiganMid-American2.275-6.0-4.5-10.8-11.4-9.4-9.9-9.7-2.5-3.2-1.51.20.70.62.11.81.82.22.2
59NorthwesternBig Ten2.5931.05.86.210.17.710.37.12.64.03.53.42.54.04.14.24.22.52.5
58Kansas StateBig 122.95710.310.413.49.99.911.511.74.03.83.95.33.93.53.84.44.42.92.9
57MissouriSEC3.24711.811.98.73.92.85.34.25.84.54.13.74.23.72.72.82.83.23.2
56DukeACC3.7754.08.87.14.77.57.49.98.910.28.76.24.43.94.14.14.33.73.7
55TexasBig 124.25710.94.13.74.03.7-1.13.34.05.53.24.33.43.33.25.15.14.24.2
54Penn StateBig Ten4.3766.71.20.54.33.52.44.83.53.56.46.46.25.94.14.14.24.34.3
53South CarolinaSEC4.33812.111.48.16.77.14.32.73.53.02.74.34.13.43.93.93.94.34.3
52Miami (Fla.)ACC4.87512.012.113.912.811.57.48.39.63.45.25.02.94.35.65.65.64.84.8
50San Diego StateMountain West4.9103-4.3-4.2-7.5-11.5-12.0-11.3-9.3-6.5-2.40.0-0.21.12.92.42.32.34.94.9
51TempleAmerican Athletic4.9104-3.32.54.21.31.32.94.93.95.05.96.44.65.76.46.36.24.94.9
49South FloridaAmerican Athletic6.375-3.9-3.8-1.7-5.5-6.4-6.8-3.3-0.90.40.20.83.06.17.77.67.56.36.3
48Bowling Green StateMid-American6.6104-10.5-11.6-4.3-2.7-2.8-2.5-1.52.76.46.87.68.86.88.59.39.36.66.6
47Georgia TechACC6.8299.29.316.315.911.710.79.89.011.19.69.89.27.47.37.37.36.86.8
45Texas TechBig 126.8662.93.19.812.611.69.813.011.28.88.18.28.99.19.19.09.06.86.8
46ToledoMid-American6.8102-4.5-4.42.10.83.65.75.46.56.36.44.95.77.36.36.46.46.86.8
44Virginia TechACC7.56610.28.28.410.87.07.08.28.07.18.67.98.48.99.09.09.07.57.5
43North Carolina StateACC7.8664.45.25.27.411.39.17.56.68.28.410.09.09.18.99.19.17.87.8
42NebraskaBig Ten7.96713.08.411.413.18.88.17.79.67.86.16.47.17.57.37.47.47.97.9
41PittsburghACC7.9754.04.24.54.97.29.08.59.29.08.48.310.010.39.59.59.57.97.9
40Brigham YoungIndependent8.0841.66.68.711.38.18.19.08.27.67.56.55.56.77.87.97.88.08.0
39Washington StatePac 128.1931.31.43.4-0.1-0.80.93.96.16.26.57.48.79.47.47.67.68.18.1
38MemphisAmerican Athletic8.6840.00.18.06.95.35.35.59.511.411.28.19.57.410.510.610.48.68.6
37Arizona StatePac 129.05713.68.98.97.13.89.19.78.48.37.06.27.68.48.58.58.59.09.0
36LouisvilleACC9.1759.410.36.96.47.69.39.07.88.57.48.68.07.68.58.58.59.29.1
35NavyAmerican Athletic9.3102-6.9-6.7-6.70.52.45.76.05.63.85.18.610.411.610.110.18.59.39.3
34Western KentuckyConference USA9.8122-5.2-2.4-1.7-0.63.06.98.97.66.25.85.44.97.98.79.19.19.89.8
33Boise StateMountain West10.4844.96.55.25.712.516.518.814.612.112.712.38.57.17.47.47.410.410.4
32IowaBig Ten11.01123.73.96.56.19.511.210.113.614.013.613.412.612.412.812.812.811.011.0
31CaliforniaPac 1211.3756.46.59.88.510.48.711.512.211.111.210.110.610.710.210.410.411.311.3
30AuburnSEC11.46619.518.917.813.812.19.79.39.19.18.410.810.08.98.88.88.811.311.4
29WisconsinBig Ten11.610310.79.715.013.713.311.311.010.511.412.712.612.310.911.011.211.211.611.6
28FloridaSEC11.710414.716.813.312.312.717.518.517.917.419.317.417.215.013.213.013.011.711.7
26Oklahoma StateBig 1212.3937.77.07.014.713.812.815.514.816.717.218.917.817.414.914.814.812.312.3
27UCLAPac 1212.38516.717.919.017.418.614.315.312.814.111.814.013.013.712.812.912.912.312.3
25Texas A&MSEC12.57514.519.519.416.716.118.017.915.013.712.710.811.112.512.012.112.112.512.5
24UtahPac 1212.81038.89.68.79.116.917.317.118.516.215.215.814.513.512.312.312.312.812.8
22GeorgiaSEC12.99320.920.820.323.624.718.517.015.214.812.713.213.712.212.512.212.212.912.9
23HoustonAmerican Athletic12.9121-1.0-0.83.63.58.69.78.49.613.514.913.912.910.712.112.111.912.912.9
21West VirginiaBig 1213.5759.915.017.217.121.217.715.315.515.813.412.813.315.215.614.614.613.513.5
20OregonPac 1213.68421.221.319.315.66.57.85.08.78.39.810.912.414.513.313.613.613.613.6
19Michigan StateBig Ten14.112216.215.014.412.111.08.37.211.211.912.712.512.614.115.715.715.814.114.1
18ArkansasSEC15.77514.315.28.76.47.29.29.99.69.89.810.713.013.114.014.014.015.715.7
17WashingtonPac 1215.76611.610.29.89.39.310.014.712.610.714.413.011.513.515.215.315.315.715.7
15MichiganBig Ten16.41038.07.510.89.415.417.119.817.317.416.116.615.816.314.414.414.516.416.4
16USCPac 1216.48617.823.024.119.221.423.020.419.521.020.819.618.216.717.616.716.716.416.4
14Mississippi StateSEC16.58415.614.313.715.217.014.813.314.116.416.217.415.215.214.214.314.316.516.5
13Texas ChristianBig 1216.710218.417.617.412.713.716.819.318.518.320.719.015.817.117.617.517.416.716.7
12Florida StateACC16.89317.820.819.218.417.316.015.016.615.615.615.616.016.418.618.518.516.816.8
11Notre DameIndependent16.910313.620.619.719.817.016.817.918.519.718.919.618.917.717.818.017.916.916.9
10LSUSEC17.09316.816.917.722.020.516.415.716.418.318.117.715.313.914.714.714.717.017.0
9North CarolinaACC17.9934.55.54.510.710.812.411.914.713.814.017.219.118.719.218.918.917.917.9
8TennesseeSEC18.58413.614.915.214.915.214.215.016.017.319.517.916.716.216.716.716.718.518.5
7StanfordPac 1220.312213.79.310.716.016.619.318.018.519.218.119.218.018.117.919.119.120.320.3
6MississippiSEC20.49317.317.423.225.722.017.417.114.916.116.615.516.217.018.118.118.120.420.4
5BaylorBig 1221.19316.017.818.919.524.325.529.830.927.927.525.624.325.023.821.621.521.121.1
4Ohio StateBig Ten22.412123.125.325.721.419.417.716.818.921.121.220.321.020.021.921.921.922.422.4
3ClemsonACC23.613116.216.315.815.117.917.619.419.325.725.324.923.422.622.222.522.523.623.6
2OklahomaBig 1226.011216.517.319.416.517.820.416.922.224.525.826.227.326.428.328.228.226.026.0
1AlabamaSEC28.013123.725.024.724.222.825.023.724.123.223.223.224.724.525.125.325.327.928.0

College sports ratings use a somewhat less sophisticated version of the NFL model that does not use individual play data. Final scores and game location are the only data used. Unlike BCS computer ratings, point difference is factored rather than simply the outcome of the game. Instead of adjusting ratings for repeatability, both teams in each game are given equal responsibility for the result. Each team is assigned a normal probability distribution for quality such that the most likely scenario considering all games at once is optimized. In doing so, home field advantage is factored where applicable and strength of schedule is automatically accounted for. After 1 game, a team's rating will simply be their net points divided by 2. Past the first game, relative strength of opponents and how far a result is from the expected result begin to factor in. Like the NFL ratings, the first few weeks' ratings are unreliable but quickly become increasingly accurate thereafter. Subtracting one team's rating from another's will give an expected point spread should they play at a neutral site.