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Year:
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-->Full explanation of our college football ratings
2015 College Football Predictive Ratings
Rk College Conference Rat W L R0 R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 R17
5BaylorBig 1221.19316.017.818.919.524.325.529.830.927.927.525.624.325.023.821.621.521.121.1
3ClemsonACC23.613116.216.315.815.117.917.619.419.325.725.324.923.422.622.222.522.523.623.6
2OklahomaBig 1226.011216.517.319.416.517.820.416.922.224.525.826.227.326.428.328.228.226.026.0
1AlabamaSEC28.013123.725.024.724.222.825.023.724.123.223.223.224.724.525.125.325.327.928.0
4Ohio StateBig Ten22.412123.125.325.721.419.417.716.818.921.121.220.321.020.021.921.921.922.422.4
16USCPac 1216.48617.823.024.119.221.423.020.419.521.020.819.618.216.717.616.716.716.416.4
11Notre DameIndependent16.910313.620.619.719.817.016.817.918.519.718.919.618.917.717.818.017.916.916.9
7StanfordPac 1220.312213.79.310.716.016.619.318.018.519.218.119.218.018.117.919.119.120.320.3
10LSUSEC17.09316.816.917.722.020.516.415.716.418.318.117.715.313.914.714.714.717.017.0
13Texas ChristianBig 1216.710218.417.617.412.713.716.819.318.518.320.719.015.817.117.617.517.416.716.7
15MichiganBig Ten16.41038.07.510.89.415.417.119.817.317.416.116.615.816.314.414.414.516.416.4
28FloridaSEC11.710414.716.813.312.312.717.518.517.917.419.317.417.215.013.213.013.011.711.7
8TennesseeSEC18.58413.614.915.214.915.214.215.016.017.319.517.916.716.216.716.716.718.518.5
26Oklahoma StateBig 1212.3937.77.07.014.713.812.815.514.816.717.218.917.817.414.914.814.812.312.3
14Mississippi StateSEC16.58415.614.313.715.217.014.813.314.116.416.217.415.215.214.214.314.316.516.5
24UtahPac 1212.81038.89.68.79.116.917.317.118.516.215.215.814.513.512.312.312.312.812.8
6MississippiSEC20.49317.317.423.225.722.017.417.114.916.116.615.516.217.018.118.118.120.420.4
21West VirginiaBig 1213.5759.915.017.217.121.217.715.315.515.813.412.813.315.215.614.614.613.513.5
12Florida StateACC16.89317.820.819.218.417.316.015.016.615.615.615.616.016.418.618.518.516.816.8
22GeorgiaSEC12.99320.920.820.323.624.718.517.015.214.812.713.213.712.212.512.212.212.912.9
27UCLAPac 1212.38516.717.919.017.418.614.315.312.814.111.814.013.013.712.812.912.912.312.3
32IowaBig Ten11.01123.73.96.56.19.511.210.113.614.013.613.412.612.412.812.812.811.011.0
9North CarolinaACC17.9934.55.54.510.710.812.411.914.713.814.017.219.118.719.218.918.917.917.9
25Texas A&MSEC12.57514.519.519.416.716.118.017.915.013.712.710.811.112.512.012.112.112.512.5
23HoustonAmerican Athletic12.9121-1.0-0.83.63.58.69.78.49.613.514.913.912.910.712.112.111.912.912.9
33Boise StateMountain West10.4844.96.55.25.712.516.518.814.612.112.712.38.57.17.47.47.410.410.4
19Michigan StateBig Ten14.112216.215.014.412.111.08.37.211.211.912.712.512.614.115.715.715.814.114.1
29WisconsinBig Ten11.610310.79.715.013.713.311.311.010.511.412.712.612.310.911.011.211.211.611.6
38MemphisAmerican Athletic8.6840.00.18.06.95.35.35.59.511.411.28.19.57.410.510.610.48.68.6
31CaliforniaPac 1211.3756.46.59.88.510.48.711.512.211.111.210.110.610.710.210.410.411.311.3
47Georgia TechACC6.8299.29.316.315.911.710.79.89.011.19.69.89.27.47.37.37.36.86.8
17WashingtonPac 1215.76611.610.29.89.39.310.014.712.610.714.413.011.513.515.215.315.315.715.7
56DukeACC3.7754.08.87.14.77.57.49.98.910.28.76.24.43.94.14.14.33.73.7
18ArkansasSEC15.77514.315.28.76.47.29.29.99.69.89.810.713.013.114.014.014.015.715.7
30AuburnSEC11.46619.518.917.813.812.19.79.39.19.18.410.810.08.98.88.88.811.311.4
41PittsburghACC7.9754.04.24.54.97.29.08.59.29.08.48.310.010.39.59.59.57.97.9
45Texas TechBig 126.8662.93.19.812.611.69.813.011.28.88.18.28.99.19.19.09.06.86.8
36LouisvilleACC9.1759.410.36.96.47.69.39.07.88.57.48.68.07.68.58.58.59.29.1
20OregonPac 1213.68421.221.319.315.66.57.85.08.78.39.810.912.414.513.313.613.613.613.6
37Arizona StatePac 129.05713.68.98.97.13.89.19.78.48.37.06.27.68.48.58.58.59.09.0
43North Carolina StateACC7.8664.45.25.27.411.39.17.56.68.28.410.09.09.18.99.19.17.87.8
42NebraskaBig Ten7.96713.08.411.413.18.88.17.79.67.86.16.47.17.57.37.47.47.97.9
40Brigham YoungIndependent8.0841.66.68.711.38.18.19.08.27.67.56.55.56.77.87.97.88.08.0
44Virginia TechACC7.56610.28.28.410.87.07.08.28.07.18.67.98.48.99.09.09.07.57.5
48Bowling Green StateMid-American6.6104-10.5-11.6-4.3-2.7-2.8-2.5-1.52.76.46.87.68.86.88.59.39.36.66.6
46ToledoMid-American6.8102-4.5-4.42.10.83.65.75.46.56.36.44.95.77.36.36.46.46.86.8
34Western KentuckyConference USA9.8122-5.2-2.4-1.7-0.63.06.98.97.66.25.85.44.97.98.79.19.19.89.8
39Washington StatePac 128.1931.31.43.4-0.1-0.80.93.96.16.26.57.48.79.47.47.67.68.18.1
65Appalachian StateSun Belt1.6102-13.3-13.2-12.7-13.0-2.2-2.8-0.44.76.14.11.32.02.32.41.71.71.61.6
55TexasBig 124.25710.94.13.74.03.7-1.13.34.05.53.24.33.43.33.25.15.14.24.2
51TempleAmerican Athletic4.9104-3.32.54.21.31.32.94.93.95.05.96.44.65.76.46.36.24.94.9
57MissouriSEC3.24711.811.98.73.92.85.34.25.84.54.13.74.23.72.72.82.83.23.2
59NorthwesternBig Ten2.5931.05.86.210.17.710.37.12.64.03.53.42.54.04.14.24.22.52.5
35NavyAmerican Athletic9.3102-6.9-6.7-6.70.52.45.76.05.63.85.18.610.411.610.110.18.59.39.3
58Kansas StateBig 122.95710.310.413.49.99.911.511.74.03.83.95.33.93.53.84.44.42.92.9
62ArizonaPac 122.06610.96.78.98.24.60.54.93.83.70.21.52.62.11.92.02.02.02.0
54Penn StateBig Ten4.3766.71.20.54.33.52.44.83.53.56.46.46.25.94.14.14.24.34.3
52Miami (Fla.)ACC4.87512.012.113.912.811.57.48.39.63.45.25.02.94.35.65.65.64.84.8
72KentuckySEC0.1475.23.16.45.54.85.25.35.03.41.30.50.20.5-0.4-0.6-0.60.10.1
69Boston CollegeACC0.6193.23.33.32.51.32.20.71.53.21.40.2-0.11.21.31.21.30.60.6
70Louisiana TechConference USA0.3840.70.90.22.22.44.53.80.83.23.74.73.82.0-0.9-1.0-1.00.30.3
76Utah StateMountain West-0.357-7.1-6.9-4.1-3.2-1.4-0.14.79.43.14.52.52.01.2-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.3
53South CarolinaSEC4.33812.111.48.16.77.14.32.73.53.02.74.34.13.43.93.93.94.34.3
71East CarolinaAmerican Athletic0.247-3.4-3.30.8-4.4-1.13.04.03.71.70.2-0.6-0.61.81.01.00.80.20.2
74VanderbiltSEC-0.1380.3-2.2-1.6-0.53.33.12.61.21.6-0.71.31.2-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.1-0.1
77IllinoisBig Ten-0.447-0.46.96.91.51.52.32.03.31.4-2.01.60.90.3-0.1-0.10.0-0.4-0.4
75CincinnatiAmerican Athletic-0.3661.71.8-1.1-4.5-3.9-0.30.0-0.11.14.35.04.21.42.52.52.4-0.3-0.3
83Northern IllinoisMid-American-3.176-7.2-8.2-8.5-1.5-1.0-2.5-1.9-0.10.50.31.31.51.80.3-0.5-0.4-3.1-3.1
49South FloridaAmerican Athletic6.375-3.9-3.8-1.7-5.5-6.4-6.8-3.3-0.90.40.20.83.06.17.77.67.56.36.3
64VirginiaACC1.8386.55.66.76.4-1.6-1.70.1-0.60.11.01.71.62.02.22.12.21.81.8
82Central MichiganMid-American-2.966-10.0-9.1-9.1-5.2-5.1-4.3-5.0-0.3-0.30.00.1-0.1-0.2-2.0-2.1-2.1-2.9-2.9
61IndianaBig Ten2.0570.91.01.40.82.63.91.90.4-1.2-1.1-1.0-0.81.12.22.22.32.02.0
78SyracuseACC-1.038-1.3-1.10.6-1.10.60.4-3.3-2.4-1.5-1.7-2.6-1.3-1.1-0.7-0.7-0.7-1.0-1.0
67MarshallConference USA1.2936.15.60.9-0.2-1.9-2.1-0.6-0.3-2.3-1.9-2.31.71.61.11.21.21.21.2
50San Diego StateMountain West4.9103-4.3-4.2-7.5-11.5-12.0-11.3-9.3-6.5-2.40.0-0.21.12.92.42.32.34.94.9
79Iowa StateBig 12-1.329-2.8-2.7-5.3-4.8-3.3-0.4-4.2-4.0-2.40.3-0.90.00.4-0.2-0.3-0.3-1.3-1.3
81MarylandBig Ten-2.7293.94.1-6.3-2.3-4.8-6.9-5.4-4.5-2.7-2.4-1.9-1.6-3.0-2.3-2.3-2.3-2.7-2.7
60Western MichiganMid-American2.275-6.0-4.5-10.8-11.4-9.4-9.9-9.7-2.5-3.2-1.51.20.70.62.11.81.82.22.2
68MinnesotaBig Ten0.6674.96.05.3-0.7-1.4-2.80.4-2.4-3.2-1.7-1.00.00.70.50.50.50.60.6
66Georgia SouthernSun Belt1.284-9.9-14.7-7.9-8.0-4.6-3.0-3.4-2.3-3.5-3.0-3.4-0.80.61.9-1.7-1.71.21.2
63Southern MississippiConference USA1.885-12.1-10.4-10.6-8.9-6.6-5.1-7.5-5.7-4.1-4.7-4.9-0.7-0.62.01.41.41.81.8
89RutgersBig Ten-6.9382.82.91.0-4.2-4.1-4.4-3.9-1.3-4.5-6.1-7.0-7.2-6.7-7.2-7.1-7.0-6.9-6.9
80Middle Tennessee StateConference USA-2.666-8.4-8.2-5.32.01.91.2-1.8-1.9-4.7-5.5-4.5-4.5-3.8-2.3-2.2-2.2-2.6-2.6
84ColoradoPac 12-3.239-1.3-4.8-1.3-0.7-1.1-3.7-5.6-5.4-4.8-4.0-4.9-3.6-4.4-3.5-3.4-3.4-3.2-3.2
73Air ForceMountain West0.076-9.0-8.9-5.4-3.5-2.7-4.9-5.8-7.2-5.8-1.2-0.7-0.11.4-0.4-0.2-0.20.00.0
85Wake ForestACC-3.329-3.5-3.3-5.1-5.9-5.3-3.1-3.1-4.8-5.9-5.2-4.8-4.2-3.3-3.1-3.1-2.9-3.3-3.3
87ConnecticutAmerican Athletic-4.857-12.9-12.8-13.0-8.4-8.5-6.6-3.6-4.7-7.0-4.6-5.0-4.9-3.7-4.5-4.5-4.5-4.8-4.8
96Oregon StatePac 12-9.41102.82.9-2.3-3.0-1.3-0.3-4.7-6.5-7.1-6.4-8.2-8.9-11.0-10.0-9.9-9.9-9.4-9.4
88TulsaAmerican Athletic-6.867-11.8-11.2-7.5-5.2-5.0-5.1-6.5-6.2-7.4-6.4-6.8-6.5-7.5-7.1-7.1-7.3-6.8-6.8
91Colorado StateMountain West-7.766-4.4-4.3-3.3-4.9-6.2-7.5-7.5-6.6-7.5-8.9-7.9-7.5-7.2-7.9-7.9-7.9-7.7-7.7
104Florida InternationalConference USA-15.747-11.5-7.6-8.3-8.2-7.0-9.4-7.6-8.2-7.5-9.7-9.9-12.9-15.9-15.8-15.8-15.8-15.7-15.7
93PurdueBig Ten-8.1110-3.0-2.2-3.7-7.8-9.9-6.9-9.9-8.4-8.2-5.3-8.3-7.0-6.7-7.5-7.4-7.4-8.1-8.1
86Arkansas StateSun Belt-4.284-6.5-11.5-8.9-11.2-13.3-12.2-12.9-10.4-9.6-10.1-7.6-5.2-5.2-4.6-3.3-3.3-4.2-4.2
99BuffaloMid-American-13.047-15.2-15.0-13.1-7.0-8.7-10.0-9.2-12.7-9.8-9.9-10.1-10.3-11.4-12.5-12.5-12.5-13.0-13.0
95NevadaMountain West-8.966-6.5-6.4-10.2-7.2-7.0-9.8-8.0-10.8-10.3-11.4-10.6-10.2-9.7-10.0-10.0-10.0-8.9-8.9
92Ohio U.Mid-American-7.775-13.1-9.6-5.0-5.6-5.2-5.2-2.8-8.5-11.0-10.6-11.8-10.0-9.2-7.8-7.8-7.8-7.7-7.7
94AkronMid-American-8.875-15.3-15.8-15.4-16.0-9.7-9.4-6.9-11.7-11.2-11.3-11.2-10.8-9.7-8.9-9.0-9.0-8.8-8.8
90San Jose StateMountain West-7.657-11.9-11.8-15.3-14.4-9.8-8.8-9.0-12.5-11.9-11.2-9.5-9.2-8.6-9.0-9.0-9.0-7.6-7.6
108Louisiana-LafayetteSun Belt-17.538-7.4-5.1-4.1-4.3-11.7-13.3-11.2-12.4-12.4-13.4-14.0-14.6-16.1-16.2-17.7-17.7-17.5-17.5
101ArmyIndependent-13.619-15.3-15.2-15.0-13.3-10.0-7.1-10.6-11.6-12.5-12.2-12.9-14.6-15.0-15.3-15.2-13.6-13.6-13.6
105Southern MethodistAmerican Athletic-16.729-15.5-17.1-13.8-11.6-11.2-13.5-11.8-11.4-12.5-12.9-14.0-15.5-13.3-16.0-16.2-16.4-16.7-16.7
107Ball StateMid-American-16.929-10.8-10.7-10.5-9.5-7.4-6.8-9.0-13.3-12.5-12.4-15.4-15.2-15.4-16.6-16.4-16.3-16.9-16.9
103Nevada-Las VegasMountain West-15.729-16.7-15.3-16.2-13.5-12.1-10.8-11.0-13.1-12.9-14.0-12.4-13.3-15.4-16.4-16.5-16.4-15.7-15.7
113RiceConference USA-19.447-7.8-7.7-7.4-6.0-10.4-15.6-13.5-13.3-13.3-14.6-15.6-19.9-19.8-19.6-19.6-19.5-19.4-19.4
97TroySun Belt-10.638-17.6-18.0-18.0-15.0-14.2-17.5-16.8-18.8-13.5-11.3-8.9-12.0-11.8-12.8-11.1-11.1-10.6-10.6
112Texas-San AntonioConference USA-19.239-13.8-9.3-10.7-16.5-16.5-15.0-12.8-15.4-14.8-16.3-17.2-17.3-17.2-19.1-19.1-19.1-19.2-19.2
118Central FloridaAmerican Athletic-21.2011-0.3-4.0-5.5-4.2-4.3-8.4-12.5-12.0-14.8-16.8-16.7-17.4-19.9-21.0-20.9-21.0-21.2-21.2
106MassachusettsMid-American-16.739-16.5-16.3-21.2-17.0-16.6-14.6-15.2-16.0-15.3-15.8-16.3-16.1-17.5-16.3-16.2-16.2-16.7-16.7
123HawaiiMountain West-22.6210-12.1-8.3-7.6-8.5-9.4-14.6-16.4-16.1-15.7-19.2-20.0-22.2-23.3-23.5-23.4-23.4-22.6-22.6
109WyomingMountain West-17.929-12.5-12.4-20.9-19.5-22.3-20.5-19.7-17.8-16.0-16.6-18.0-18.9-18.7-18.5-18.6-18.6-17.9-17.9
116KansasBig 12-20.7011-2.8-2.7-10.5-10.9-11.9-13.9-17.4-14.2-16.5-18.2-20.0-17.0-18.7-19.5-19.6-19.6-20.7-20.7
121Texas StateSun Belt-22.329-9.7-12.4-12.9-14.4-17.8-17.5-20.2-19.7-17.0-17.8-20.4-22.1-21.6-21.2-22.6-22.6-22.3-22.3
98New MexicoMountain West-10.766-12.9-12.7-18.2-16.5-15.6-15.1-16.3-16.8-17.3-17.6-15.7-12.7-13.2-11.8-11.8-11.8-10.7-10.7
102Florida AtlanticConference USA-14.139-9.3-9.7-9.7-13.1-14.1-15.2-15.6-16.1-18.8-16.6-15.7-16.1-13.9-14.0-14.0-14.0-14.1-14.1
115TulaneAmerican Athletic-20.129-10.1-14.6-19.9-20.6-21.0-16.7-19.4-21.0-19.0-18.5-18.1-17.5-19.6-19.8-19.9-19.9-20.1-20.1
111South AlabamaSun Belt-18.847-13.4-13.3-16.7-12.5-19.2-17.7-17.6-19.3-19.6-19.4-18.8-18.2-18.9-20.0-19.2-19.1-18.8-18.8
114IdahoSun Belt-20.138-19.6-22.8-21.6-22.9-24.2-23.4-23.6-22.5-20.5-21.5-21.4-21.9-20.8-20.4-20.6-20.6-20.1-20.1
110Fresno StateMountain West-18.229-7.1-6.9-12.7-12.8-15.8-17.2-20.4-19.1-20.6-19.8-20.5-17.8-18.9-18.9-18.9-18.9-18.2-18.2
117Kent StateMid-American-20.929-16.1-23.1-23.1-18.9-17.8-18.2-18.2-17.2-20.7-20.8-19.8-20.5-20.2-20.6-20.6-20.6-20.9-20.9
127Louisiana-MonroeSun Belt-24.6111-13.5-13.2-13.3-12.3-10.9-14.7-14.9-19.0-20.7-20.6-23.1-25.1-25.7-25.1-25.2-25.2-24.6-24.6
100Georgia StateSun Belt-13.666-23.0-25.0-23.7-23.3-25.1-24.8-27.7-22.1-22.7-22.2-21.8-18.7-17.6-17.0-13.4-13.4-13.6-13.6
125Eastern MichiganMid-American-24.6111-23.1-23.2-16.8-18.2-22.4-18.7-21.5-23.7-23.5-24.6-25.5-26.2-26.1-24.6-24.6-24.5-24.6-24.6
124North TexasConference USA-23.7110-14.5-14.4-18.8-19.4-22.8-26.0-25.9-24.7-23.7-22.8-24.3-22.5-23.2-23.8-23.8-23.8-23.7-23.7
122Old DominionConference USA-22.447-16.5-16.1-14.1-15.9-23.4-22.5-22.6-23.3-24.7-24.9-23.5-22.9-22.8-22.3-22.4-22.3-22.4-22.4
120Texas-El PasoConference USA-22.147-13.8-14.5-21.1-20.7-20.8-23.3-25.5-26.2-25.1-24.9-23.7-24.3-22.4-22.1-22.2-22.2-22.1-22.1
119Miami (Ohio)Mid-American-21.829-14.3-14.2-22.2-20.1-23.0-21.7-22.6-25.2-25.3-24.0-22.8-23.0-21.8-21.4-21.4-21.4-21.8-21.8
126New Mexico StateSun Belt-24.639-21.5-23.4-25.6-26.0-26.3-25.0-26.2-26.3-30.3-28.5-26.3-26.0-24.3-24.7-25.0-25.0-24.6-24.6
128North Carolina-CharlotteConference USA-30.3110-25.5-23.2-22.8-30.0-29.9-30.9-31.6-29.8-32.1-31.6-30.4-29.2-30.2-30.5-30.3-30.3-30.3-30.3

College sports ratings use a somewhat less sophisticated version of the NFL model that does not use individual play data. Final scores and game location are the only data used. Unlike BCS computer ratings, point difference is factored rather than simply the outcome of the game. Instead of adjusting ratings for repeatability, both teams in each game are given equal responsibility for the result. Each team is assigned a normal probability distribution for quality such that the most likely scenario considering all games at once is optimized. In doing so, home field advantage is factored where applicable and strength of schedule is automatically accounted for. After 1 game, a team's rating will simply be their net points divided by 2. Past the first game, relative strength of opponents and how far a result is from the expected result begin to factor in. Like the NFL ratings, the first few weeks' ratings are unreliable but quickly become increasingly accurate thereafter. Subtracting one team's rating from another's will give an expected point spread should they play at a neutral site.