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-->Full explanation of our college football ratings
2015 College Football Predictive Ratings
Rk College Conference Rat W L R0 R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 R17
2OklahomaBig 1226.011216.517.319.416.517.820.416.922.224.525.826.227.326.428.328.228.226.026.0
5BaylorBig 1221.19316.017.818.919.524.325.529.830.927.927.525.624.325.023.821.621.521.121.1
1AlabamaSEC28.013123.725.024.724.222.825.023.724.123.223.223.224.724.525.125.325.327.928.0
3ClemsonACC23.613116.216.315.815.117.917.619.419.325.725.324.923.422.622.222.522.523.623.6
4Ohio StateBig Ten22.412123.125.325.721.419.417.716.818.921.121.220.321.020.021.921.921.922.422.4
9North CarolinaACC17.9934.55.54.510.710.812.411.914.713.814.017.219.118.719.218.918.917.917.9
7StanfordPac 1220.312213.79.310.716.016.619.318.018.519.218.119.218.018.117.919.119.120.320.3
11Notre DameIndependent16.910313.620.619.719.817.016.817.918.519.718.919.618.917.717.818.017.916.916.9
26Oklahoma StateBig 1212.3937.77.07.014.713.812.815.514.816.717.218.917.817.414.914.814.812.312.3
13Texas ChristianBig 1216.710218.417.617.412.713.716.819.318.518.320.719.015.817.117.617.517.416.716.7
6MississippiSEC20.49317.317.423.225.722.017.417.114.916.116.615.516.217.018.118.118.120.420.4
16USCPac 1216.48617.823.024.119.221.423.020.419.521.020.819.618.216.717.616.716.716.416.4
12Florida StateACC16.89317.820.819.218.417.316.015.016.615.615.615.616.016.418.618.518.516.816.8
15MichiganBig Ten16.41038.07.510.89.415.417.119.817.317.416.116.615.816.314.414.414.516.416.4
8TennesseeSEC18.58413.614.915.214.915.214.215.016.017.319.517.916.716.216.716.716.718.518.5
14Mississippi StateSEC16.58415.614.313.715.217.014.813.314.116.416.217.415.215.214.214.314.316.516.5
21West VirginiaBig 1213.5759.915.017.217.121.217.715.315.515.813.412.813.315.215.614.614.613.513.5
28FloridaSEC11.710414.716.813.312.312.717.518.517.917.419.317.417.215.013.213.013.011.711.7
20OregonPac 1213.68421.221.319.315.66.57.85.08.78.39.810.912.414.513.313.613.613.613.6
19Michigan StateBig Ten14.112216.215.014.412.111.08.37.211.211.912.712.512.614.115.715.715.814.114.1
10LSUSEC17.09316.816.917.722.020.516.415.716.418.318.117.715.313.914.714.714.717.017.0
27UCLAPac 1212.38516.717.919.017.418.614.315.312.814.111.814.013.013.712.812.912.912.312.3
17WashingtonPac 1215.76611.610.29.89.39.310.014.712.610.714.413.011.513.515.215.315.315.715.7
24UtahPac 1212.81038.89.68.79.116.917.317.118.516.215.215.814.513.512.312.312.312.812.8
18ArkansasSEC15.77514.315.28.76.47.29.29.99.69.89.810.713.013.114.014.014.015.715.7
25Texas A&MSEC12.57514.519.519.416.716.118.017.915.013.712.710.811.112.512.012.112.112.512.5
32IowaBig Ten11.01123.73.96.56.19.511.210.113.614.013.613.412.612.412.812.812.811.011.0
22GeorgiaSEC12.99320.920.820.323.624.718.517.015.214.812.713.213.712.212.512.212.212.912.9
35NavyAmerican Athletic9.3102-6.9-6.7-6.70.52.45.76.05.63.85.18.610.411.610.110.18.59.39.3
29WisconsinBig Ten11.610310.79.715.013.713.311.311.010.511.412.712.612.310.911.011.211.211.611.6
23HoustonAmerican Athletic12.9121-1.0-0.83.63.58.69.78.49.613.514.913.912.910.712.112.111.912.912.9
31CaliforniaPac 1211.3756.46.59.88.510.48.711.512.211.111.210.110.610.710.210.410.411.311.3
41PittsburghACC7.9754.04.24.54.97.29.08.59.29.08.48.310.010.39.59.59.57.97.9
39Washington StatePac 128.1931.31.43.4-0.1-0.80.93.96.16.26.57.48.79.47.47.67.68.18.1
43North Carolina StateACC7.8664.45.25.27.411.39.17.56.68.28.410.09.09.18.99.19.17.87.8
45Texas TechBig 126.8662.93.19.812.611.69.813.011.28.88.18.28.99.19.19.09.06.86.8
30AuburnSEC11.46619.518.917.813.812.19.79.39.19.18.410.810.08.98.88.88.811.311.4
44Virginia TechACC7.56610.28.28.410.87.07.08.28.07.18.67.98.48.99.09.09.07.57.5
37Arizona StatePac 129.05713.68.98.97.13.89.19.78.48.37.06.27.68.48.58.58.59.09.0
34Western KentuckyConference USA9.8122-5.2-2.4-1.7-0.63.06.98.97.66.25.85.44.97.98.79.19.19.89.8
36LouisvilleACC9.1759.410.36.96.47.69.39.07.88.57.48.68.07.68.58.58.59.29.1
42NebraskaBig Ten7.96713.08.411.413.18.88.17.79.67.86.16.47.17.57.37.47.47.97.9
38MemphisAmerican Athletic8.6840.00.18.06.95.35.35.59.511.411.28.19.57.410.510.610.48.68.6
47Georgia TechACC6.8299.29.316.315.911.710.79.89.011.19.69.89.27.47.37.37.36.86.8
46ToledoMid-American6.8102-4.5-4.42.10.83.65.75.46.56.36.44.95.77.36.36.46.46.86.8
33Boise StateMountain West10.4844.96.55.25.712.516.518.814.612.112.712.38.57.17.47.47.410.410.4
48Bowling Green StateMid-American6.6104-10.5-11.6-4.3-2.7-2.8-2.5-1.52.76.46.87.68.86.88.59.39.36.66.6
40Brigham YoungIndependent8.0841.66.68.711.38.18.19.08.27.67.56.55.56.77.87.97.88.08.0
49South FloridaAmerican Athletic6.375-3.9-3.8-1.7-5.5-6.4-6.8-3.3-0.90.40.20.83.06.17.77.67.56.36.3
54Penn StateBig Ten4.3766.71.20.54.33.52.44.83.53.56.46.46.25.94.14.14.24.34.3
51TempleAmerican Athletic4.9104-3.32.54.21.31.32.94.93.95.05.96.44.65.76.46.36.24.94.9
52Miami (Fla.)ACC4.87512.012.113.912.811.57.48.39.63.45.25.02.94.35.65.65.64.84.8
59NorthwesternBig Ten2.5931.05.86.210.17.710.37.12.64.03.53.42.54.04.14.24.22.52.5
56DukeACC3.7754.08.87.14.77.57.49.98.910.28.76.24.43.94.14.14.33.73.7
57MissouriSEC3.24711.811.98.73.92.85.34.25.84.54.13.74.23.72.72.82.83.23.2
58Kansas StateBig 122.95710.310.413.49.99.911.511.74.03.83.95.33.93.53.84.44.42.92.9
53South CarolinaSEC4.33812.111.48.16.77.14.32.73.53.02.74.34.13.43.93.93.94.34.3
55TexasBig 124.25710.94.13.74.03.7-1.13.34.05.53.24.33.43.33.25.15.14.24.2
50San Diego StateMountain West4.9103-4.3-4.2-7.5-11.5-12.0-11.3-9.3-6.5-2.40.0-0.21.12.92.42.32.34.94.9
65Appalachian StateSun Belt1.6102-13.3-13.2-12.7-13.0-2.2-2.8-0.44.76.14.11.32.02.32.41.71.71.61.6
62ArizonaPac 122.06610.96.78.98.24.60.54.93.83.70.21.52.62.11.92.02.02.02.0
64VirginiaACC1.8386.55.66.76.4-1.6-1.70.1-0.60.11.01.71.62.02.22.12.21.81.8
70Louisiana TechConference USA0.3840.70.90.22.22.44.53.80.83.23.74.73.82.0-0.9-1.0-1.00.30.3
71East CarolinaAmerican Athletic0.247-3.4-3.30.8-4.4-1.13.04.03.71.70.2-0.6-0.61.81.01.00.80.20.2
83Northern IllinoisMid-American-3.176-7.2-8.2-8.5-1.5-1.0-2.5-1.9-0.10.50.31.31.51.80.3-0.5-0.4-3.1-3.1
67MarshallConference USA1.2936.15.60.9-0.2-1.9-2.1-0.6-0.3-2.3-1.9-2.31.71.61.11.21.21.21.2
73Air ForceMountain West0.076-9.0-8.9-5.4-3.5-2.7-4.9-5.8-7.2-5.8-1.2-0.7-0.11.4-0.4-0.2-0.20.00.0
75CincinnatiAmerican Athletic-0.3661.71.8-1.1-4.5-3.9-0.30.0-0.11.14.35.04.21.42.52.52.4-0.3-0.3
69Boston CollegeACC0.6193.23.33.32.51.32.20.71.53.21.40.2-0.11.21.31.21.30.60.6
76Utah StateMountain West-0.357-7.1-6.9-4.1-3.2-1.4-0.14.79.43.14.52.52.01.2-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.3
61IndianaBig Ten2.0570.91.01.40.82.63.91.90.4-1.2-1.1-1.0-0.81.12.22.22.32.02.0
68MinnesotaBig Ten0.6674.96.05.3-0.7-1.4-2.80.4-2.4-3.2-1.7-1.00.00.70.50.50.50.60.6
60Western MichiganMid-American2.275-6.0-4.5-10.8-11.4-9.4-9.9-9.7-2.5-3.2-1.51.20.70.62.11.81.82.22.2
66Georgia SouthernSun Belt1.284-9.9-14.7-7.9-8.0-4.6-3.0-3.4-2.3-3.5-3.0-3.4-0.80.61.9-1.7-1.71.21.2
72KentuckySEC0.1475.23.16.45.54.85.25.35.03.41.30.50.20.5-0.4-0.6-0.60.10.1
79Iowa StateBig 12-1.329-2.8-2.7-5.3-4.8-3.3-0.4-4.2-4.0-2.40.3-0.90.00.4-0.2-0.3-0.3-1.3-1.3
77IllinoisBig Ten-0.447-0.46.96.91.51.52.32.03.31.4-2.01.60.90.3-0.1-0.10.0-0.4-0.4
82Central MichiganMid-American-2.966-10.0-9.1-9.1-5.2-5.1-4.3-5.0-0.3-0.30.00.1-0.1-0.2-2.0-2.1-2.1-2.9-2.9
74VanderbiltSEC-0.1380.3-2.2-1.6-0.53.33.12.61.21.6-0.71.31.2-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.1-0.1
63Southern MississippiConference USA1.885-12.1-10.4-10.6-8.9-6.6-5.1-7.5-5.7-4.1-4.7-4.9-0.7-0.62.01.41.41.81.8
78SyracuseACC-1.038-1.3-1.10.6-1.10.60.4-3.3-2.4-1.5-1.7-2.6-1.3-1.1-0.7-0.7-0.7-1.0-1.0
81MarylandBig Ten-2.7293.94.1-6.3-2.3-4.8-6.9-5.4-4.5-2.7-2.4-1.9-1.6-3.0-2.3-2.3-2.3-2.7-2.7
85Wake ForestACC-3.329-3.5-3.3-5.1-5.9-5.3-3.1-3.1-4.8-5.9-5.2-4.8-4.2-3.3-3.1-3.1-2.9-3.3-3.3
87ConnecticutAmerican Athletic-4.857-12.9-12.8-13.0-8.4-8.5-6.6-3.6-4.7-7.0-4.6-5.0-4.9-3.7-4.5-4.5-4.5-4.8-4.8
80Middle Tennessee StateConference USA-2.666-8.4-8.2-5.32.01.91.2-1.8-1.9-4.7-5.5-4.5-4.5-3.8-2.3-2.2-2.2-2.6-2.6
84ColoradoPac 12-3.239-1.3-4.8-1.3-0.7-1.1-3.7-5.6-5.4-4.8-4.0-4.9-3.6-4.4-3.5-3.4-3.4-3.2-3.2
86Arkansas StateSun Belt-4.284-6.5-11.5-8.9-11.2-13.3-12.2-12.9-10.4-9.6-10.1-7.6-5.2-5.2-4.6-3.3-3.3-4.2-4.2
89RutgersBig Ten-6.9382.82.91.0-4.2-4.1-4.4-3.9-1.3-4.5-6.1-7.0-7.2-6.7-7.2-7.1-7.0-6.9-6.9
93PurdueBig Ten-8.1110-3.0-2.2-3.7-7.8-9.9-6.9-9.9-8.4-8.2-5.3-8.3-7.0-6.7-7.5-7.4-7.4-8.1-8.1
91Colorado StateMountain West-7.766-4.4-4.3-3.3-4.9-6.2-7.5-7.5-6.6-7.5-8.9-7.9-7.5-7.2-7.9-7.9-7.9-7.7-7.7
88TulsaAmerican Athletic-6.867-11.8-11.2-7.5-5.2-5.0-5.1-6.5-6.2-7.4-6.4-6.8-6.5-7.5-7.1-7.1-7.3-6.8-6.8
90San Jose StateMountain West-7.657-11.9-11.8-15.3-14.4-9.8-8.8-9.0-12.5-11.9-11.2-9.5-9.2-8.6-9.0-9.0-9.0-7.6-7.6
92Ohio U.Mid-American-7.775-13.1-9.6-5.0-5.6-5.2-5.2-2.8-8.5-11.0-10.6-11.8-10.0-9.2-7.8-7.8-7.8-7.7-7.7
94AkronMid-American-8.875-15.3-15.8-15.4-16.0-9.7-9.4-6.9-11.7-11.2-11.3-11.2-10.8-9.7-8.9-9.0-9.0-8.8-8.8
95NevadaMountain West-8.966-6.5-6.4-10.2-7.2-7.0-9.8-8.0-10.8-10.3-11.4-10.6-10.2-9.7-10.0-10.0-10.0-8.9-8.9
96Oregon StatePac 12-9.41102.82.9-2.3-3.0-1.3-0.3-4.7-6.5-7.1-6.4-8.2-8.9-11.0-10.0-9.9-9.9-9.4-9.4
99BuffaloMid-American-13.047-15.2-15.0-13.1-7.0-8.7-10.0-9.2-12.7-9.8-9.9-10.1-10.3-11.4-12.5-12.5-12.5-13.0-13.0
97TroySun Belt-10.638-17.6-18.0-18.0-15.0-14.2-17.5-16.8-18.8-13.5-11.3-8.9-12.0-11.8-12.8-11.1-11.1-10.6-10.6
98New MexicoMountain West-10.766-12.9-12.7-18.2-16.5-15.6-15.1-16.3-16.8-17.3-17.6-15.7-12.7-13.2-11.8-11.8-11.8-10.7-10.7
105Southern MethodistAmerican Athletic-16.729-15.5-17.1-13.8-11.6-11.2-13.5-11.8-11.4-12.5-12.9-14.0-15.5-13.3-16.0-16.2-16.4-16.7-16.7
102Florida AtlanticConference USA-14.139-9.3-9.7-9.7-13.1-14.1-15.2-15.6-16.1-18.8-16.6-15.7-16.1-13.9-14.0-14.0-14.0-14.1-14.1
101ArmyIndependent-13.619-15.3-15.2-15.0-13.3-10.0-7.1-10.6-11.6-12.5-12.2-12.9-14.6-15.0-15.3-15.2-13.6-13.6-13.6
103Nevada-Las VegasMountain West-15.729-16.7-15.3-16.2-13.5-12.1-10.8-11.0-13.1-12.9-14.0-12.4-13.3-15.4-16.4-16.5-16.4-15.7-15.7
107Ball StateMid-American-16.929-10.8-10.7-10.5-9.5-7.4-6.8-9.0-13.3-12.5-12.4-15.4-15.2-15.4-16.6-16.4-16.3-16.9-16.9
104Florida InternationalConference USA-15.747-11.5-7.6-8.3-8.2-7.0-9.4-7.6-8.2-7.5-9.7-9.9-12.9-15.9-15.8-15.8-15.8-15.7-15.7
108Louisiana-LafayetteSun Belt-17.538-7.4-5.1-4.1-4.3-11.7-13.3-11.2-12.4-12.4-13.4-14.0-14.6-16.1-16.2-17.7-17.7-17.5-17.5
112Texas-San AntonioConference USA-19.239-13.8-9.3-10.7-16.5-16.5-15.0-12.8-15.4-14.8-16.3-17.2-17.3-17.2-19.1-19.1-19.1-19.2-19.2
106MassachusettsMid-American-16.739-16.5-16.3-21.2-17.0-16.6-14.6-15.2-16.0-15.3-15.8-16.3-16.1-17.5-16.3-16.2-16.2-16.7-16.7
100Georgia StateSun Belt-13.666-23.0-25.0-23.7-23.3-25.1-24.8-27.7-22.1-22.7-22.2-21.8-18.7-17.6-17.0-13.4-13.4-13.6-13.6
109WyomingMountain West-17.929-12.5-12.4-20.9-19.5-22.3-20.5-19.7-17.8-16.0-16.6-18.0-18.9-18.7-18.5-18.6-18.6-17.9-17.9
116KansasBig 12-20.7011-2.8-2.7-10.5-10.9-11.9-13.9-17.4-14.2-16.5-18.2-20.0-17.0-18.7-19.5-19.6-19.6-20.7-20.7
110Fresno StateMountain West-18.229-7.1-6.9-12.7-12.8-15.8-17.2-20.4-19.1-20.6-19.8-20.5-17.8-18.9-18.9-18.9-18.9-18.2-18.2
111South AlabamaSun Belt-18.847-13.4-13.3-16.7-12.5-19.2-17.7-17.6-19.3-19.6-19.4-18.8-18.2-18.9-20.0-19.2-19.1-18.8-18.8
115TulaneAmerican Athletic-20.129-10.1-14.6-19.9-20.6-21.0-16.7-19.4-21.0-19.0-18.5-18.1-17.5-19.6-19.8-19.9-19.9-20.1-20.1
113RiceConference USA-19.447-7.8-7.7-7.4-6.0-10.4-15.6-13.5-13.3-13.3-14.6-15.6-19.9-19.8-19.6-19.6-19.5-19.4-19.4
118Central FloridaAmerican Athletic-21.2011-0.3-4.0-5.5-4.2-4.3-8.4-12.5-12.0-14.8-16.8-16.7-17.4-19.9-21.0-20.9-21.0-21.2-21.2
117Kent StateMid-American-20.929-16.1-23.1-23.1-18.9-17.8-18.2-18.2-17.2-20.7-20.8-19.8-20.5-20.2-20.6-20.6-20.6-20.9-20.9
114IdahoSun Belt-20.138-19.6-22.8-21.6-22.9-24.2-23.4-23.6-22.5-20.5-21.5-21.4-21.9-20.8-20.4-20.6-20.6-20.1-20.1
121Texas StateSun Belt-22.329-9.7-12.4-12.9-14.4-17.8-17.5-20.2-19.7-17.0-17.8-20.4-22.1-21.6-21.2-22.6-22.6-22.3-22.3
119Miami (Ohio)Mid-American-21.829-14.3-14.2-22.2-20.1-23.0-21.7-22.6-25.2-25.3-24.0-22.8-23.0-21.8-21.4-21.4-21.4-21.8-21.8
120Texas-El PasoConference USA-22.147-13.8-14.5-21.1-20.7-20.8-23.3-25.5-26.2-25.1-24.9-23.7-24.3-22.4-22.1-22.2-22.2-22.1-22.1
122Old DominionConference USA-22.447-16.5-16.1-14.1-15.9-23.4-22.5-22.6-23.3-24.7-24.9-23.5-22.9-22.8-22.3-22.4-22.3-22.4-22.4
124North TexasConference USA-23.7110-14.5-14.4-18.8-19.4-22.8-26.0-25.9-24.7-23.7-22.8-24.3-22.5-23.2-23.8-23.8-23.8-23.7-23.7
123HawaiiMountain West-22.6210-12.1-8.3-7.6-8.5-9.4-14.6-16.4-16.1-15.7-19.2-20.0-22.2-23.3-23.5-23.4-23.4-22.6-22.6
126New Mexico StateSun Belt-24.639-21.5-23.4-25.6-26.0-26.3-25.0-26.2-26.3-30.3-28.5-26.3-26.0-24.3-24.7-25.0-25.0-24.6-24.6
127Louisiana-MonroeSun Belt-24.6111-13.5-13.2-13.3-12.3-10.9-14.7-14.9-19.0-20.7-20.6-23.1-25.1-25.7-25.1-25.2-25.2-24.6-24.6
125Eastern MichiganMid-American-24.6111-23.1-23.2-16.8-18.2-22.4-18.7-21.5-23.7-23.5-24.6-25.5-26.2-26.1-24.6-24.6-24.5-24.6-24.6
128North Carolina-CharlotteConference USA-30.3110-25.5-23.2-22.8-30.0-29.9-30.9-31.6-29.8-32.1-31.6-30.4-29.2-30.2-30.5-30.3-30.3-30.3-30.3

College sports ratings use a somewhat less sophisticated version of the NFL model that does not use individual play data. Final scores and game location are the only data used. Unlike BCS computer ratings, point difference is factored rather than simply the outcome of the game. Instead of adjusting ratings for repeatability, both teams in each game are given equal responsibility for the result. Each team is assigned a normal probability distribution for quality such that the most likely scenario considering all games at once is optimized. In doing so, home field advantage is factored where applicable and strength of schedule is automatically accounted for. After 1 game, a team's rating will simply be their net points divided by 2. Past the first game, relative strength of opponents and how far a result is from the expected result begin to factor in. Like the NFL ratings, the first few weeks' ratings are unreliable but quickly become increasingly accurate thereafter. Subtracting one team's rating from another's will give an expected point spread should they play at a neutral site.