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Year:
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-->Full explanation of our college football ratings
2015 College Football Predictive Ratings
Rk College Conference Rat W L R0 R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 R17
5BaylorBig 1221.19316.017.818.919.524.325.529.830.927.927.525.624.325.023.821.621.521.121.1
1AlabamaSEC28.013123.725.024.724.222.825.023.724.123.223.223.224.724.525.125.325.327.928.0
2OklahomaBig 1226.011216.517.319.416.517.820.416.922.224.525.826.227.326.428.328.228.226.026.0
16USCPac 1216.48617.823.024.119.221.423.020.419.521.020.819.618.216.717.616.716.716.416.4
3ClemsonACC23.613116.216.315.815.117.917.619.419.325.725.324.923.422.622.222.522.523.623.6
4Ohio StateBig Ten22.412123.125.325.721.419.417.716.818.921.121.220.321.020.021.921.921.922.422.4
7StanfordPac 1220.312213.79.310.716.016.619.318.018.519.218.119.218.018.117.919.119.120.320.3
11Notre DameIndependent16.910313.620.619.719.817.016.817.918.519.718.919.618.917.717.818.017.916.916.9
13Texas ChristianBig 1216.710218.417.617.412.713.716.819.318.518.320.719.015.817.117.617.517.416.716.7
24UtahPac 1212.81038.89.68.79.116.917.317.118.516.215.215.814.513.512.312.312.312.812.8
28FloridaSEC11.710414.716.813.312.312.717.518.517.917.419.317.417.215.013.213.013.011.711.7
15MichiganBig Ten16.41038.07.510.89.415.417.119.817.317.416.116.615.816.314.414.414.516.416.4
12Florida StateACC16.89317.820.819.218.417.316.015.016.615.615.615.616.016.418.618.518.516.816.8
10LSUSEC17.09316.816.917.722.020.516.415.716.418.318.117.715.313.914.714.714.717.017.0
8TennesseeSEC18.58413.614.915.214.915.214.215.016.017.319.517.916.716.216.716.716.718.518.5
21West VirginiaBig 1213.5759.915.017.217.121.217.715.315.515.813.412.813.315.215.614.614.613.513.5
22GeorgiaSEC12.99320.920.820.323.624.718.517.015.214.812.713.213.712.212.512.212.212.912.9
25Texas A&MSEC12.57514.519.519.416.716.118.017.915.013.712.710.811.112.512.012.112.112.512.5
6MississippiSEC20.49317.317.423.225.722.017.417.114.916.116.615.516.217.018.118.118.120.420.4
26Oklahoma StateBig 1212.3937.77.07.014.713.812.815.514.816.717.218.917.817.414.914.814.812.312.3
9North CarolinaACC17.9934.55.54.510.710.812.411.914.713.814.017.219.118.719.218.918.917.917.9
33Boise StateMountain West10.4844.96.55.25.712.516.518.814.612.112.712.38.57.17.47.47.410.410.4
14Mississippi StateSEC16.58415.614.313.715.217.014.813.314.116.416.217.415.215.214.214.314.316.516.5
32IowaBig Ten11.01123.73.96.56.19.511.210.113.614.013.613.412.612.412.812.812.811.011.0
27UCLAPac 1212.38516.717.919.017.418.614.315.312.814.111.814.013.013.712.812.912.912.312.3
17WashingtonPac 1215.76611.610.29.89.39.310.014.712.610.714.413.011.513.515.215.315.315.715.7
31CaliforniaPac 1211.3756.46.59.88.510.48.711.512.211.111.210.110.610.710.210.410.411.311.3
19Michigan StateBig Ten14.112216.215.014.412.111.08.37.211.211.912.712.512.614.115.715.715.814.114.1
45Texas TechBig 126.8662.93.19.812.611.69.813.011.28.88.18.28.99.19.19.09.06.86.8
29WisconsinBig Ten11.610310.79.715.013.713.311.311.010.511.412.712.612.310.911.011.211.211.611.6
18ArkansasSEC15.77514.315.28.76.47.29.29.99.69.89.810.713.013.114.014.014.015.715.7
23HoustonAmerican Athletic12.9121-1.0-0.83.63.58.69.78.49.613.514.913.912.910.712.112.111.912.912.9
42NebraskaBig Ten7.96713.08.411.413.18.88.17.79.67.86.16.47.17.57.37.47.47.97.9
52Miami (Fla.)ACC4.87512.012.113.912.811.57.48.39.63.45.25.02.94.35.65.65.64.84.8
38MemphisAmerican Athletic8.6840.00.18.06.95.35.35.59.511.411.28.19.57.410.510.610.48.68.6
76Utah StateMountain West-0.357-7.1-6.9-4.1-3.2-1.4-0.14.79.43.14.52.52.01.2-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.3
41PittsburghACC7.9754.04.24.54.97.29.08.59.29.08.48.310.010.39.59.59.57.97.9
30AuburnSEC11.46619.518.917.813.812.19.79.39.19.18.410.810.08.98.88.88.811.311.4
47Georgia TechACC6.8299.29.316.315.911.710.79.89.011.19.69.89.27.47.37.37.36.86.8
56DukeACC3.7754.08.87.14.77.57.49.98.910.28.76.24.43.94.14.14.33.73.7
20OregonPac 1213.68421.221.319.315.66.57.85.08.78.39.810.912.414.513.313.613.613.613.6
37Arizona StatePac 129.05713.68.98.97.13.89.19.78.48.37.06.27.68.48.58.58.59.09.0
40Brigham YoungIndependent8.0841.66.68.711.38.18.19.08.27.67.56.55.56.77.87.97.88.08.0
44Virginia TechACC7.56610.28.28.410.87.07.08.28.07.18.67.98.48.99.09.09.07.57.5
36LouisvilleACC9.1759.410.36.96.47.69.39.07.88.57.48.68.07.68.58.58.59.29.1
34Western KentuckyConference USA9.8122-5.2-2.4-1.7-0.63.06.98.97.66.25.85.44.97.98.79.19.19.89.8
43North Carolina StateACC7.8664.45.25.27.411.39.17.56.68.28.410.09.09.18.99.19.17.87.8
46ToledoMid-American6.8102-4.5-4.42.10.83.65.75.46.56.36.44.95.77.36.36.46.46.86.8
39Washington StatePac 128.1931.31.43.4-0.1-0.80.93.96.16.26.57.48.79.47.47.67.68.18.1
57MissouriSEC3.24711.811.98.73.92.85.34.25.84.54.13.74.23.72.72.82.83.23.2
35NavyAmerican Athletic9.3102-6.9-6.7-6.70.52.45.76.05.63.85.18.610.411.610.110.18.59.39.3
72KentuckySEC0.1475.23.16.45.54.85.25.35.03.41.30.50.20.5-0.4-0.6-0.60.10.1
65Appalachian StateSun Belt1.6102-13.3-13.2-12.7-13.0-2.2-2.8-0.44.76.14.11.32.02.32.41.71.71.61.6
55TexasBig 124.25710.94.13.74.03.7-1.13.34.05.53.24.33.43.33.25.15.14.24.2
58Kansas StateBig 122.95710.310.413.49.99.911.511.74.03.83.95.33.93.53.84.44.42.92.9
51TempleAmerican Athletic4.9104-3.32.54.21.31.32.94.93.95.05.96.44.65.76.46.36.24.94.9
62ArizonaPac 122.06610.96.78.98.24.60.54.93.83.70.21.52.62.11.92.02.02.02.0
71East CarolinaAmerican Athletic0.247-3.4-3.30.8-4.4-1.13.04.03.71.70.2-0.6-0.61.81.01.00.80.20.2
54Penn StateBig Ten4.3766.71.20.54.33.52.44.83.53.56.46.46.25.94.14.14.24.34.3
53South CarolinaSEC4.33812.111.48.16.77.14.32.73.53.02.74.34.13.43.93.93.94.34.3
77IllinoisBig Ten-0.447-0.46.96.91.51.52.32.03.31.4-2.01.60.90.3-0.1-0.10.0-0.4-0.4
48Bowling Green StateMid-American6.6104-10.5-11.6-4.3-2.7-2.8-2.5-1.52.76.46.87.68.86.88.59.39.36.66.6
59NorthwesternBig Ten2.5931.05.86.210.17.710.37.12.64.03.53.42.54.04.14.24.22.52.5
69Boston CollegeACC0.6193.23.33.32.51.32.20.71.53.21.40.2-0.11.21.31.21.30.60.6
74VanderbiltSEC-0.1380.3-2.2-1.6-0.53.33.12.61.21.6-0.71.31.2-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.1-0.1
70Louisiana TechConference USA0.3840.70.90.22.22.44.53.80.83.23.74.73.82.0-0.9-1.0-1.00.30.3
61IndianaBig Ten2.0570.91.01.40.82.63.91.90.4-1.2-1.1-1.0-0.81.12.22.22.32.02.0
75CincinnatiAmerican Athletic-0.3661.71.8-1.1-4.5-3.9-0.30.0-0.11.14.35.04.21.42.52.52.4-0.3-0.3
83Northern IllinoisMid-American-3.176-7.2-8.2-8.5-1.5-1.0-2.5-1.9-0.10.50.31.31.51.80.3-0.5-0.4-3.1-3.1
67MarshallConference USA1.2936.15.60.9-0.2-1.9-2.1-0.6-0.3-2.3-1.9-2.31.71.61.11.21.21.21.2
82Central MichiganMid-American-2.966-10.0-9.1-9.1-5.2-5.1-4.3-5.0-0.3-0.30.00.1-0.1-0.2-2.0-2.1-2.1-2.9-2.9
64VirginiaACC1.8386.55.66.76.4-1.6-1.70.1-0.60.11.01.71.62.02.22.12.21.81.8
49South FloridaAmerican Athletic6.375-3.9-3.8-1.7-5.5-6.4-6.8-3.3-0.90.40.20.83.06.17.77.67.56.36.3
89RutgersBig Ten-6.9382.82.91.0-4.2-4.1-4.4-3.9-1.3-4.5-6.1-7.0-7.2-6.7-7.2-7.1-7.0-6.9-6.9
80Middle Tennessee StateConference USA-2.666-8.4-8.2-5.32.01.91.2-1.8-1.9-4.7-5.5-4.5-4.5-3.8-2.3-2.2-2.2-2.6-2.6
66Georgia SouthernSun Belt1.284-9.9-14.7-7.9-8.0-4.6-3.0-3.4-2.3-3.5-3.0-3.4-0.80.61.9-1.7-1.71.21.2
68MinnesotaBig Ten0.6674.96.05.3-0.7-1.4-2.80.4-2.4-3.2-1.7-1.00.00.70.50.50.50.60.6
78SyracuseACC-1.038-1.3-1.10.6-1.10.60.4-3.3-2.4-1.5-1.7-2.6-1.3-1.1-0.7-0.7-0.7-1.0-1.0
60Western MichiganMid-American2.275-6.0-4.5-10.8-11.4-9.4-9.9-9.7-2.5-3.2-1.51.20.70.62.11.81.82.22.2
79Iowa StateBig 12-1.329-2.8-2.7-5.3-4.8-3.3-0.4-4.2-4.0-2.40.3-0.90.00.4-0.2-0.3-0.3-1.3-1.3
81MarylandBig Ten-2.7293.94.1-6.3-2.3-4.8-6.9-5.4-4.5-2.7-2.4-1.9-1.6-3.0-2.3-2.3-2.3-2.7-2.7
87ConnecticutAmerican Athletic-4.857-12.9-12.8-13.0-8.4-8.5-6.6-3.6-4.7-7.0-4.6-5.0-4.9-3.7-4.5-4.5-4.5-4.8-4.8
85Wake ForestACC-3.329-3.5-3.3-5.1-5.9-5.3-3.1-3.1-4.8-5.9-5.2-4.8-4.2-3.3-3.1-3.1-2.9-3.3-3.3
84ColoradoPac 12-3.239-1.3-4.8-1.3-0.7-1.1-3.7-5.6-5.4-4.8-4.0-4.9-3.6-4.4-3.5-3.4-3.4-3.2-3.2
63Southern MississippiConference USA1.885-12.1-10.4-10.6-8.9-6.6-5.1-7.5-5.7-4.1-4.7-4.9-0.7-0.62.01.41.41.81.8
88TulsaAmerican Athletic-6.867-11.8-11.2-7.5-5.2-5.0-5.1-6.5-6.2-7.4-6.4-6.8-6.5-7.5-7.1-7.1-7.3-6.8-6.8
50San Diego StateMountain West4.9103-4.3-4.2-7.5-11.5-12.0-11.3-9.3-6.5-2.40.0-0.21.12.92.42.32.34.94.9
96Oregon StatePac 12-9.41102.82.9-2.3-3.0-1.3-0.3-4.7-6.5-7.1-6.4-8.2-8.9-11.0-10.0-9.9-9.9-9.4-9.4
91Colorado StateMountain West-7.766-4.4-4.3-3.3-4.9-6.2-7.5-7.5-6.6-7.5-8.9-7.9-7.5-7.2-7.9-7.9-7.9-7.7-7.7
73Air ForceMountain West0.076-9.0-8.9-5.4-3.5-2.7-4.9-5.8-7.2-5.8-1.2-0.7-0.11.4-0.4-0.2-0.20.00.0
104Florida InternationalConference USA-15.747-11.5-7.6-8.3-8.2-7.0-9.4-7.6-8.2-7.5-9.7-9.9-12.9-15.9-15.8-15.8-15.8-15.7-15.7
93PurdueBig Ten-8.1110-3.0-2.2-3.7-7.8-9.9-6.9-9.9-8.4-8.2-5.3-8.3-7.0-6.7-7.5-7.4-7.4-8.1-8.1
92Ohio U.Mid-American-7.775-13.1-9.6-5.0-5.6-5.2-5.2-2.8-8.5-11.0-10.6-11.8-10.0-9.2-7.8-7.8-7.8-7.7-7.7
86Arkansas StateSun Belt-4.284-6.5-11.5-8.9-11.2-13.3-12.2-12.9-10.4-9.6-10.1-7.6-5.2-5.2-4.6-3.3-3.3-4.2-4.2
95NevadaMountain West-8.966-6.5-6.4-10.2-7.2-7.0-9.8-8.0-10.8-10.3-11.4-10.6-10.2-9.7-10.0-10.0-10.0-8.9-8.9
105Southern MethodistAmerican Athletic-16.729-15.5-17.1-13.8-11.6-11.2-13.5-11.8-11.4-12.5-12.9-14.0-15.5-13.3-16.0-16.2-16.4-16.7-16.7
101ArmyIndependent-13.619-15.3-15.2-15.0-13.3-10.0-7.1-10.6-11.6-12.5-12.2-12.9-14.6-15.0-15.3-15.2-13.6-13.6-13.6
94AkronMid-American-8.875-15.3-15.8-15.4-16.0-9.7-9.4-6.9-11.7-11.2-11.3-11.2-10.8-9.7-8.9-9.0-9.0-8.8-8.8
118Central FloridaAmerican Athletic-21.2011-0.3-4.0-5.5-4.2-4.3-8.4-12.5-12.0-14.8-16.8-16.7-17.4-19.9-21.0-20.9-21.0-21.2-21.2
108Louisiana-LafayetteSun Belt-17.538-7.4-5.1-4.1-4.3-11.7-13.3-11.2-12.4-12.4-13.4-14.0-14.6-16.1-16.2-17.7-17.7-17.5-17.5
90San Jose StateMountain West-7.657-11.9-11.8-15.3-14.4-9.8-8.8-9.0-12.5-11.9-11.2-9.5-9.2-8.6-9.0-9.0-9.0-7.6-7.6
99BuffaloMid-American-13.047-15.2-15.0-13.1-7.0-8.7-10.0-9.2-12.7-9.8-9.9-10.1-10.3-11.4-12.5-12.5-12.5-13.0-13.0
103Nevada-Las VegasMountain West-15.729-16.7-15.3-16.2-13.5-12.1-10.8-11.0-13.1-12.9-14.0-12.4-13.3-15.4-16.4-16.5-16.4-15.7-15.7
107Ball StateMid-American-16.929-10.8-10.7-10.5-9.5-7.4-6.8-9.0-13.3-12.5-12.4-15.4-15.2-15.4-16.6-16.4-16.3-16.9-16.9
113RiceConference USA-19.447-7.8-7.7-7.4-6.0-10.4-15.6-13.5-13.3-13.3-14.6-15.6-19.9-19.8-19.6-19.6-19.5-19.4-19.4
116KansasBig 12-20.7011-2.8-2.7-10.5-10.9-11.9-13.9-17.4-14.2-16.5-18.2-20.0-17.0-18.7-19.5-19.6-19.6-20.7-20.7
112Texas-San AntonioConference USA-19.239-13.8-9.3-10.7-16.5-16.5-15.0-12.8-15.4-14.8-16.3-17.2-17.3-17.2-19.1-19.1-19.1-19.2-19.2
106MassachusettsMid-American-16.739-16.5-16.3-21.2-17.0-16.6-14.6-15.2-16.0-15.3-15.8-16.3-16.1-17.5-16.3-16.2-16.2-16.7-16.7
102Florida AtlanticConference USA-14.139-9.3-9.7-9.7-13.1-14.1-15.2-15.6-16.1-18.8-16.6-15.7-16.1-13.9-14.0-14.0-14.0-14.1-14.1
123HawaiiMountain West-22.6210-12.1-8.3-7.6-8.5-9.4-14.6-16.4-16.1-15.7-19.2-20.0-22.2-23.3-23.5-23.4-23.4-22.6-22.6
98New MexicoMountain West-10.766-12.9-12.7-18.2-16.5-15.6-15.1-16.3-16.8-17.3-17.6-15.7-12.7-13.2-11.8-11.8-11.8-10.7-10.7
117Kent StateMid-American-20.929-16.1-23.1-23.1-18.9-17.8-18.2-18.2-17.2-20.7-20.8-19.8-20.5-20.2-20.6-20.6-20.6-20.9-20.9
109WyomingMountain West-17.929-12.5-12.4-20.9-19.5-22.3-20.5-19.7-17.8-16.0-16.6-18.0-18.9-18.7-18.5-18.6-18.6-17.9-17.9
97TroySun Belt-10.638-17.6-18.0-18.0-15.0-14.2-17.5-16.8-18.8-13.5-11.3-8.9-12.0-11.8-12.8-11.1-11.1-10.6-10.6
127Louisiana-MonroeSun Belt-24.6111-13.5-13.2-13.3-12.3-10.9-14.7-14.9-19.0-20.7-20.6-23.1-25.1-25.7-25.1-25.2-25.2-24.6-24.6
110Fresno StateMountain West-18.229-7.1-6.9-12.7-12.8-15.8-17.2-20.4-19.1-20.6-19.8-20.5-17.8-18.9-18.9-18.9-18.9-18.2-18.2
111South AlabamaSun Belt-18.847-13.4-13.3-16.7-12.5-19.2-17.7-17.6-19.3-19.6-19.4-18.8-18.2-18.9-20.0-19.2-19.1-18.8-18.8
121Texas StateSun Belt-22.329-9.7-12.4-12.9-14.4-17.8-17.5-20.2-19.7-17.0-17.8-20.4-22.1-21.6-21.2-22.6-22.6-22.3-22.3
115TulaneAmerican Athletic-20.129-10.1-14.6-19.9-20.6-21.0-16.7-19.4-21.0-19.0-18.5-18.1-17.5-19.6-19.8-19.9-19.9-20.1-20.1
100Georgia StateSun Belt-13.666-23.0-25.0-23.7-23.3-25.1-24.8-27.7-22.1-22.7-22.2-21.8-18.7-17.6-17.0-13.4-13.4-13.6-13.6
114IdahoSun Belt-20.138-19.6-22.8-21.6-22.9-24.2-23.4-23.6-22.5-20.5-21.5-21.4-21.9-20.8-20.4-20.6-20.6-20.1-20.1
122Old DominionConference USA-22.447-16.5-16.1-14.1-15.9-23.4-22.5-22.6-23.3-24.7-24.9-23.5-22.9-22.8-22.3-22.4-22.3-22.4-22.4
125Eastern MichiganMid-American-24.6111-23.1-23.2-16.8-18.2-22.4-18.7-21.5-23.7-23.5-24.6-25.5-26.2-26.1-24.6-24.6-24.5-24.6-24.6
124North TexasConference USA-23.7110-14.5-14.4-18.8-19.4-22.8-26.0-25.9-24.7-23.7-22.8-24.3-22.5-23.2-23.8-23.8-23.8-23.7-23.7
119Miami (Ohio)Mid-American-21.829-14.3-14.2-22.2-20.1-23.0-21.7-22.6-25.2-25.3-24.0-22.8-23.0-21.8-21.4-21.4-21.4-21.8-21.8
120Texas-El PasoConference USA-22.147-13.8-14.5-21.1-20.7-20.8-23.3-25.5-26.2-25.1-24.9-23.7-24.3-22.4-22.1-22.2-22.2-22.1-22.1
126New Mexico StateSun Belt-24.639-21.5-23.4-25.6-26.0-26.3-25.0-26.2-26.3-30.3-28.5-26.3-26.0-24.3-24.7-25.0-25.0-24.6-24.6
128North Carolina-CharlotteConference USA-30.3110-25.5-23.2-22.8-30.0-29.9-30.9-31.6-29.8-32.1-31.6-30.4-29.2-30.2-30.5-30.3-30.3-30.3-30.3

College sports ratings use a somewhat less sophisticated version of the NFL model that does not use individual play data. Final scores and game location are the only data used. Unlike BCS computer ratings, point difference is factored rather than simply the outcome of the game. Instead of adjusting ratings for repeatability, both teams in each game are given equal responsibility for the result. Each team is assigned a normal probability distribution for quality such that the most likely scenario considering all games at once is optimized. In doing so, home field advantage is factored where applicable and strength of schedule is automatically accounted for. After 1 game, a team's rating will simply be their net points divided by 2. Past the first game, relative strength of opponents and how far a result is from the expected result begin to factor in. Like the NFL ratings, the first few weeks' ratings are unreliable but quickly become increasingly accurate thereafter. Subtracting one team's rating from another's will give an expected point spread should they play at a neutral site.