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-->Full explanation of our college football ratings
2015 College Football Predictive Ratings
Rk College Conference Rat W L R0 R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 R17
2OklahomaBig 1226.011216.517.319.416.517.820.416.922.224.525.826.227.326.428.328.228.226.026.0
1AlabamaSEC28.013123.725.024.724.222.825.023.724.123.223.223.224.724.525.125.325.327.928.0
5BaylorBig 1221.19316.017.818.919.524.325.529.830.927.927.525.624.325.023.821.621.521.121.1
3ClemsonACC23.613116.216.315.815.117.917.619.419.325.725.324.923.422.622.222.522.523.623.6
4Ohio StateBig Ten22.412123.125.325.721.419.417.716.818.921.121.220.321.020.021.921.921.922.422.4
9North CarolinaACC17.9934.55.54.510.710.812.411.914.713.814.017.219.118.719.218.918.917.917.9
11Notre DameIndependent16.910313.620.619.719.817.016.817.918.519.718.919.618.917.717.818.017.916.916.9
16USCPac 1216.48617.823.024.119.221.423.020.419.521.020.819.618.216.717.616.716.716.416.4
7StanfordPac 1220.312213.79.310.716.016.619.318.018.519.218.119.218.018.117.919.119.120.320.3
26Oklahoma StateBig 1212.3937.77.07.014.713.812.815.514.816.717.218.917.817.414.914.814.812.312.3
28FloridaSEC11.710414.716.813.312.312.717.518.517.917.419.317.417.215.013.213.013.011.711.7
8TennesseeSEC18.58413.614.915.214.915.214.215.016.017.319.517.916.716.216.716.716.718.518.5
6MississippiSEC20.49317.317.423.225.722.017.417.114.916.116.615.516.217.018.118.118.120.420.4
12Florida StateACC16.89317.820.819.218.417.316.015.016.615.615.615.616.016.418.618.518.516.816.8
13Texas ChristianBig 1216.710218.417.617.412.713.716.819.318.518.320.719.015.817.117.617.517.416.716.7
15MichiganBig Ten16.41038.07.510.89.415.417.119.817.317.416.116.615.816.314.414.414.516.416.4
10LSUSEC17.09316.816.917.722.020.516.415.716.418.318.117.715.313.914.714.714.717.017.0
14Mississippi StateSEC16.58415.614.313.715.217.014.813.314.116.416.217.415.215.214.214.314.316.516.5
24UtahPac 1212.81038.89.68.79.116.917.317.118.516.215.215.814.513.512.312.312.312.812.8
22GeorgiaSEC12.99320.920.820.323.624.718.517.015.214.812.713.213.712.212.512.212.212.912.9
21West VirginiaBig 1213.5759.915.017.217.121.217.715.315.515.813.412.813.315.215.614.614.613.513.5
18ArkansasSEC15.77514.315.28.76.47.29.29.99.69.89.810.713.013.114.014.014.015.715.7
27UCLAPac 1212.38516.717.919.017.418.614.315.312.814.111.814.013.013.712.812.912.912.312.3
23HoustonAmerican Athletic12.9121-1.0-0.83.63.58.69.78.49.613.514.913.912.910.712.112.111.912.912.9
19Michigan StateBig Ten14.112216.215.014.412.111.08.37.211.211.912.712.512.614.115.715.715.814.114.1
32IowaBig Ten11.01123.73.96.56.19.511.210.113.614.013.613.412.612.412.812.812.811.011.0
20OregonPac 1213.68421.221.319.315.66.57.85.08.78.39.810.912.414.513.313.613.613.613.6
29WisconsinBig Ten11.610310.79.715.013.713.311.311.010.511.412.712.612.310.911.011.211.211.611.6
17WashingtonPac 1215.76611.610.29.89.39.310.014.712.610.714.413.011.513.515.215.315.315.715.7
25Texas A&MSEC12.57514.519.519.416.716.118.017.915.013.712.710.811.112.512.012.112.112.512.5
31CaliforniaPac 1211.3756.46.59.88.510.48.711.512.211.111.210.110.610.710.210.410.411.311.3
35NavyAmerican Athletic9.3102-6.9-6.7-6.70.52.45.76.05.63.85.18.610.411.610.110.18.59.39.3
30AuburnSEC11.46619.518.917.813.812.19.79.39.19.18.410.810.08.98.88.88.811.311.4
41PittsburghACC7.9754.04.24.54.97.29.08.59.29.08.48.310.010.39.59.59.57.97.9
38MemphisAmerican Athletic8.6840.00.18.06.95.35.35.59.511.411.28.19.57.410.510.610.48.68.6
47Georgia TechACC6.8299.29.316.315.911.710.79.89.011.19.69.89.27.47.37.37.36.86.8
43North Carolina StateACC7.8664.45.25.27.411.39.17.56.68.28.410.09.09.18.99.19.17.87.8
45Texas TechBig 126.8662.93.19.812.611.69.813.011.28.88.18.28.99.19.19.09.06.86.8
48Bowling Green StateMid-American6.6104-10.5-11.6-4.3-2.7-2.8-2.5-1.52.76.46.87.68.86.88.59.39.36.66.6
39Washington StatePac 128.1931.31.43.4-0.1-0.80.93.96.16.26.57.48.79.47.47.67.68.18.1
33Boise StateMountain West10.4844.96.55.25.712.516.518.814.612.112.712.38.57.17.47.47.410.410.4
44Virginia TechACC7.56610.28.28.410.87.07.08.28.07.18.67.98.48.99.09.09.07.57.5
36LouisvilleACC9.1759.410.36.96.47.69.39.07.88.57.48.68.07.68.58.58.59.29.1
37Arizona StatePac 129.05713.68.98.97.13.89.19.78.48.37.06.27.68.48.58.58.59.09.0
42NebraskaBig Ten7.96713.08.411.413.18.88.17.79.67.86.16.47.17.57.37.47.47.97.9
54Penn StateBig Ten4.3766.71.20.54.33.52.44.83.53.56.46.46.25.94.14.14.24.34.3
46ToledoMid-American6.8102-4.5-4.42.10.83.65.75.46.56.36.44.95.77.36.36.46.46.86.8
40Brigham YoungIndependent8.0841.66.68.711.38.18.19.08.27.67.56.55.56.77.87.97.88.08.0
34Western KentuckyConference USA9.8122-5.2-2.4-1.7-0.63.06.98.97.66.25.85.44.97.98.79.19.19.89.8
51TempleAmerican Athletic4.9104-3.32.54.21.31.32.94.93.95.05.96.44.65.76.46.36.24.94.9
56DukeACC3.7754.08.87.14.77.57.49.98.910.28.76.24.43.94.14.14.33.73.7
57MissouriSEC3.24711.811.98.73.92.85.34.25.84.54.13.74.23.72.72.82.83.23.2
75CincinnatiAmerican Athletic-0.3661.71.8-1.1-4.5-3.9-0.30.0-0.11.14.35.04.21.42.52.52.4-0.3-0.3
53South CarolinaSEC4.33812.111.48.16.77.14.32.73.53.02.74.34.13.43.93.93.94.34.3
58Kansas StateBig 122.95710.310.413.49.99.911.511.74.03.83.95.33.93.53.84.44.42.92.9
70Louisiana TechConference USA0.3840.70.90.22.22.44.53.80.83.23.74.73.82.0-0.9-1.0-1.00.30.3
55TexasBig 124.25710.94.13.74.03.7-1.13.34.05.53.24.33.43.33.25.15.14.24.2
49South FloridaAmerican Athletic6.375-3.9-3.8-1.7-5.5-6.4-6.8-3.3-0.90.40.20.83.06.17.77.67.56.36.3
52Miami (Fla.)ACC4.87512.012.113.912.811.57.48.39.63.45.25.02.94.35.65.65.64.84.8
62ArizonaPac 122.06610.96.78.98.24.60.54.93.83.70.21.52.62.11.92.02.02.02.0
59NorthwesternBig Ten2.5931.05.86.210.17.710.37.12.64.03.53.42.54.04.14.24.22.52.5
65Appalachian StateSun Belt1.6102-13.3-13.2-12.7-13.0-2.2-2.8-0.44.76.14.11.32.02.32.41.71.71.61.6
76Utah StateMountain West-0.357-7.1-6.9-4.1-3.2-1.4-0.14.79.43.14.52.52.01.2-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.3
67MarshallConference USA1.2936.15.60.9-0.2-1.9-2.1-0.6-0.3-2.3-1.9-2.31.71.61.11.21.21.21.2
64VirginiaACC1.8386.55.66.76.4-1.6-1.70.1-0.60.11.01.71.62.02.22.12.21.81.8
83Northern IllinoisMid-American-3.176-7.2-8.2-8.5-1.5-1.0-2.5-1.9-0.10.50.31.31.51.80.3-0.5-0.4-3.1-3.1
74VanderbiltSEC-0.1380.3-2.2-1.6-0.53.33.12.61.21.6-0.71.31.2-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.1-0.1
50San Diego StateMountain West4.9103-4.3-4.2-7.5-11.5-12.0-11.3-9.3-6.5-2.40.0-0.21.12.92.42.32.34.94.9
77IllinoisBig Ten-0.447-0.46.96.91.51.52.32.03.31.4-2.01.60.90.3-0.1-0.10.0-0.4-0.4
60Western MichiganMid-American2.275-6.0-4.5-10.8-11.4-9.4-9.9-9.7-2.5-3.2-1.51.20.70.62.11.81.82.22.2
72KentuckySEC0.1475.23.16.45.54.85.25.35.03.41.30.50.20.5-0.4-0.6-0.60.10.1
68MinnesotaBig Ten0.6674.96.05.3-0.7-1.4-2.80.4-2.4-3.2-1.7-1.00.00.70.50.50.50.60.6
79Iowa StateBig 12-1.329-2.8-2.7-5.3-4.8-3.3-0.4-4.2-4.0-2.40.3-0.90.00.4-0.2-0.3-0.3-1.3-1.3
69Boston CollegeACC0.6193.23.33.32.51.32.20.71.53.21.40.2-0.11.21.31.21.30.60.6
73Air ForceMountain West0.076-9.0-8.9-5.4-3.5-2.7-4.9-5.8-7.2-5.8-1.2-0.7-0.11.4-0.4-0.2-0.20.00.0
82Central MichiganMid-American-2.966-10.0-9.1-9.1-5.2-5.1-4.3-5.0-0.3-0.30.00.1-0.1-0.2-2.0-2.1-2.1-2.9-2.9
71East CarolinaAmerican Athletic0.247-3.4-3.30.8-4.4-1.13.04.03.71.70.2-0.6-0.61.81.01.00.80.20.2
63Southern MississippiConference USA1.885-12.1-10.4-10.6-8.9-6.6-5.1-7.5-5.7-4.1-4.7-4.9-0.7-0.62.01.41.41.81.8
61IndianaBig Ten2.0570.91.01.40.82.63.91.90.4-1.2-1.1-1.0-0.81.12.22.22.32.02.0
66Georgia SouthernSun Belt1.284-9.9-14.7-7.9-8.0-4.6-3.0-3.4-2.3-3.5-3.0-3.4-0.80.61.9-1.7-1.71.21.2
78SyracuseACC-1.038-1.3-1.10.6-1.10.60.4-3.3-2.4-1.5-1.7-2.6-1.3-1.1-0.7-0.7-0.7-1.0-1.0
81MarylandBig Ten-2.7293.94.1-6.3-2.3-4.8-6.9-5.4-4.5-2.7-2.4-1.9-1.6-3.0-2.3-2.3-2.3-2.7-2.7
84ColoradoPac 12-3.239-1.3-4.8-1.3-0.7-1.1-3.7-5.6-5.4-4.8-4.0-4.9-3.6-4.4-3.5-3.4-3.4-3.2-3.2
85Wake ForestACC-3.329-3.5-3.3-5.1-5.9-5.3-3.1-3.1-4.8-5.9-5.2-4.8-4.2-3.3-3.1-3.1-2.9-3.3-3.3
80Middle Tennessee StateConference USA-2.666-8.4-8.2-5.32.01.91.2-1.8-1.9-4.7-5.5-4.5-4.5-3.8-2.3-2.2-2.2-2.6-2.6
87ConnecticutAmerican Athletic-4.857-12.9-12.8-13.0-8.4-8.5-6.6-3.6-4.7-7.0-4.6-5.0-4.9-3.7-4.5-4.5-4.5-4.8-4.8
86Arkansas StateSun Belt-4.284-6.5-11.5-8.9-11.2-13.3-12.2-12.9-10.4-9.6-10.1-7.6-5.2-5.2-4.6-3.3-3.3-4.2-4.2
88TulsaAmerican Athletic-6.867-11.8-11.2-7.5-5.2-5.0-5.1-6.5-6.2-7.4-6.4-6.8-6.5-7.5-7.1-7.1-7.3-6.8-6.8
93PurdueBig Ten-8.1110-3.0-2.2-3.7-7.8-9.9-6.9-9.9-8.4-8.2-5.3-8.3-7.0-6.7-7.5-7.4-7.4-8.1-8.1
89RutgersBig Ten-6.9382.82.91.0-4.2-4.1-4.4-3.9-1.3-4.5-6.1-7.0-7.2-6.7-7.2-7.1-7.0-6.9-6.9
91Colorado StateMountain West-7.766-4.4-4.3-3.3-4.9-6.2-7.5-7.5-6.6-7.5-8.9-7.9-7.5-7.2-7.9-7.9-7.9-7.7-7.7
96Oregon StatePac 12-9.41102.82.9-2.3-3.0-1.3-0.3-4.7-6.5-7.1-6.4-8.2-8.9-11.0-10.0-9.9-9.9-9.4-9.4
90San Jose StateMountain West-7.657-11.9-11.8-15.3-14.4-9.8-8.8-9.0-12.5-11.9-11.2-9.5-9.2-8.6-9.0-9.0-9.0-7.6-7.6
92Ohio U.Mid-American-7.775-13.1-9.6-5.0-5.6-5.2-5.2-2.8-8.5-11.0-10.6-11.8-10.0-9.2-7.8-7.8-7.8-7.7-7.7
95NevadaMountain West-8.966-6.5-6.4-10.2-7.2-7.0-9.8-8.0-10.8-10.3-11.4-10.6-10.2-9.7-10.0-10.0-10.0-8.9-8.9
99BuffaloMid-American-13.047-15.2-15.0-13.1-7.0-8.7-10.0-9.2-12.7-9.8-9.9-10.1-10.3-11.4-12.5-12.5-12.5-13.0-13.0
94AkronMid-American-8.875-15.3-15.8-15.4-16.0-9.7-9.4-6.9-11.7-11.2-11.3-11.2-10.8-9.7-8.9-9.0-9.0-8.8-8.8
97TroySun Belt-10.638-17.6-18.0-18.0-15.0-14.2-17.5-16.8-18.8-13.5-11.3-8.9-12.0-11.8-12.8-11.1-11.1-10.6-10.6
98New MexicoMountain West-10.766-12.9-12.7-18.2-16.5-15.6-15.1-16.3-16.8-17.3-17.6-15.7-12.7-13.2-11.8-11.8-11.8-10.7-10.7
104Florida InternationalConference USA-15.747-11.5-7.6-8.3-8.2-7.0-9.4-7.6-8.2-7.5-9.7-9.9-12.9-15.9-15.8-15.8-15.8-15.7-15.7
103Nevada-Las VegasMountain West-15.729-16.7-15.3-16.2-13.5-12.1-10.8-11.0-13.1-12.9-14.0-12.4-13.3-15.4-16.4-16.5-16.4-15.7-15.7
101ArmyIndependent-13.619-15.3-15.2-15.0-13.3-10.0-7.1-10.6-11.6-12.5-12.2-12.9-14.6-15.0-15.3-15.2-13.6-13.6-13.6
108Louisiana-LafayetteSun Belt-17.538-7.4-5.1-4.1-4.3-11.7-13.3-11.2-12.4-12.4-13.4-14.0-14.6-16.1-16.2-17.7-17.7-17.5-17.5
107Ball StateMid-American-16.929-10.8-10.7-10.5-9.5-7.4-6.8-9.0-13.3-12.5-12.4-15.4-15.2-15.4-16.6-16.4-16.3-16.9-16.9
105Southern MethodistAmerican Athletic-16.729-15.5-17.1-13.8-11.6-11.2-13.5-11.8-11.4-12.5-12.9-14.0-15.5-13.3-16.0-16.2-16.4-16.7-16.7
102Florida AtlanticConference USA-14.139-9.3-9.7-9.7-13.1-14.1-15.2-15.6-16.1-18.8-16.6-15.7-16.1-13.9-14.0-14.0-14.0-14.1-14.1
106MassachusettsMid-American-16.739-16.5-16.3-21.2-17.0-16.6-14.6-15.2-16.0-15.3-15.8-16.3-16.1-17.5-16.3-16.2-16.2-16.7-16.7
116KansasBig 12-20.7011-2.8-2.7-10.5-10.9-11.9-13.9-17.4-14.2-16.5-18.2-20.0-17.0-18.7-19.5-19.6-19.6-20.7-20.7
112Texas-San AntonioConference USA-19.239-13.8-9.3-10.7-16.5-16.5-15.0-12.8-15.4-14.8-16.3-17.2-17.3-17.2-19.1-19.1-19.1-19.2-19.2
118Central FloridaAmerican Athletic-21.2011-0.3-4.0-5.5-4.2-4.3-8.4-12.5-12.0-14.8-16.8-16.7-17.4-19.9-21.0-20.9-21.0-21.2-21.2
115TulaneAmerican Athletic-20.129-10.1-14.6-19.9-20.6-21.0-16.7-19.4-21.0-19.0-18.5-18.1-17.5-19.6-19.8-19.9-19.9-20.1-20.1
110Fresno StateMountain West-18.229-7.1-6.9-12.7-12.8-15.8-17.2-20.4-19.1-20.6-19.8-20.5-17.8-18.9-18.9-18.9-18.9-18.2-18.2
111South AlabamaSun Belt-18.847-13.4-13.3-16.7-12.5-19.2-17.7-17.6-19.3-19.6-19.4-18.8-18.2-18.9-20.0-19.2-19.1-18.8-18.8
100Georgia StateSun Belt-13.666-23.0-25.0-23.7-23.3-25.1-24.8-27.7-22.1-22.7-22.2-21.8-18.7-17.6-17.0-13.4-13.4-13.6-13.6
109WyomingMountain West-17.929-12.5-12.4-20.9-19.5-22.3-20.5-19.7-17.8-16.0-16.6-18.0-18.9-18.7-18.5-18.6-18.6-17.9-17.9
113RiceConference USA-19.447-7.8-7.7-7.4-6.0-10.4-15.6-13.5-13.3-13.3-14.6-15.6-19.9-19.8-19.6-19.6-19.5-19.4-19.4
117Kent StateMid-American-20.929-16.1-23.1-23.1-18.9-17.8-18.2-18.2-17.2-20.7-20.8-19.8-20.5-20.2-20.6-20.6-20.6-20.9-20.9
114IdahoSun Belt-20.138-19.6-22.8-21.6-22.9-24.2-23.4-23.6-22.5-20.5-21.5-21.4-21.9-20.8-20.4-20.6-20.6-20.1-20.1
121Texas StateSun Belt-22.329-9.7-12.4-12.9-14.4-17.8-17.5-20.2-19.7-17.0-17.8-20.4-22.1-21.6-21.2-22.6-22.6-22.3-22.3
123HawaiiMountain West-22.6210-12.1-8.3-7.6-8.5-9.4-14.6-16.4-16.1-15.7-19.2-20.0-22.2-23.3-23.5-23.4-23.4-22.6-22.6
124North TexasConference USA-23.7110-14.5-14.4-18.8-19.4-22.8-26.0-25.9-24.7-23.7-22.8-24.3-22.5-23.2-23.8-23.8-23.8-23.7-23.7
122Old DominionConference USA-22.447-16.5-16.1-14.1-15.9-23.4-22.5-22.6-23.3-24.7-24.9-23.5-22.9-22.8-22.3-22.4-22.3-22.4-22.4
119Miami (Ohio)Mid-American-21.829-14.3-14.2-22.2-20.1-23.0-21.7-22.6-25.2-25.3-24.0-22.8-23.0-21.8-21.4-21.4-21.4-21.8-21.8
120Texas-El PasoConference USA-22.147-13.8-14.5-21.1-20.7-20.8-23.3-25.5-26.2-25.1-24.9-23.7-24.3-22.4-22.1-22.2-22.2-22.1-22.1
127Louisiana-MonroeSun Belt-24.6111-13.5-13.2-13.3-12.3-10.9-14.7-14.9-19.0-20.7-20.6-23.1-25.1-25.7-25.1-25.2-25.2-24.6-24.6
126New Mexico StateSun Belt-24.639-21.5-23.4-25.6-26.0-26.3-25.0-26.2-26.3-30.3-28.5-26.3-26.0-24.3-24.7-25.0-25.0-24.6-24.6
125Eastern MichiganMid-American-24.6111-23.1-23.2-16.8-18.2-22.4-18.7-21.5-23.7-23.5-24.6-25.5-26.2-26.1-24.6-24.6-24.5-24.6-24.6
128North Carolina-CharlotteConference USA-30.3110-25.5-23.2-22.8-30.0-29.9-30.9-31.6-29.8-32.1-31.6-30.4-29.2-30.2-30.5-30.3-30.3-30.3-30.3

College sports ratings use a somewhat less sophisticated version of the NFL model that does not use individual play data. Final scores and game location are the only data used. Unlike BCS computer ratings, point difference is factored rather than simply the outcome of the game. Instead of adjusting ratings for repeatability, both teams in each game are given equal responsibility for the result. Each team is assigned a normal probability distribution for quality such that the most likely scenario considering all games at once is optimized. In doing so, home field advantage is factored where applicable and strength of schedule is automatically accounted for. After 1 game, a team's rating will simply be their net points divided by 2. Past the first game, relative strength of opponents and how far a result is from the expected result begin to factor in. Like the NFL ratings, the first few weeks' ratings are unreliable but quickly become increasingly accurate thereafter. Subtracting one team's rating from another's will give an expected point spread should they play at a neutral site.