Full explanation of our stats

All odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs, using all applicable playoff tiebreakers for seeding.

Key
DesW: "Deserved" Wins thus far based on team's rating. This is equivalent to how many wins should be expected if the team was to replay the season. A number greater than actual wins indicates a team has been unlucky or has underachieved, while a number less than actual indicates a team has been lucky or has overachieved.
PreW: Predicted final wins for team based on current record, upcoming schedule, and team's rating.

NFL Playoffs Tiebreakers
1. Head to head sweep of all teams involved
2. Division record (if between teams from same division)
3. Common opponents record (goes after Conference Record for tiebreakers between teams from different divisions
4. Conference record
5. Strength of victory (record of teams beaten)
6. Strength of schedule
7. Other rare or complex tiebreakers
- For wild card tiebreakers, apply division tiebreakers first to allow only 1 team from each division for each tiebreaking round.
- After a team wins tiebreaker, restart tiebreaking process with remaining teams